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We assessed the genomic offset in\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>Populus tremuloides<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    Michx. (aspen) using 10,937 genotyping\u2010by\u2010sequencing derived, high\u2010quality SNPs from 891 individuals sampled across the species' range, from Mexico to both the eastern and western regions of North America. Gradient forest models were applied using multiple SNP datasets and climate scenarios, with the genomic offset standardized by aspen population genetic clusters and ecological regions to identify future habitat suitability (recipient importance) and potential sources of reproductive material (donor importance) for assisted migration. Moisture\u2010related variables exerted consistently stronger selective pressure on genetic variation than temperature, reflecting the riparian ecology of aspen. Populations from Mexico and the southwestern U.S.A. exhibited the highest offsets, suggesting elevated vulnerability despite apparent drought adaptations, whereas northern populations showed the lowest offsets, consistent with projected northward range shifts. Traits not captured by genomic offset models, such as polyploidy, clonality, hybridization, and epigenetics, may buffer environmental stress and enhance resilience, underscoring the limitations of purely genomic predictions. To complement offset estimates, we tested linear models using phenotypic data (growth, polyploidy), but the limited representation of aspen populations in common garden trials restricted validation. Nevertheless, a positive association between polyploidy and offset emerged, suggesting a potential adaptive or buffering mechanism that warrants further investigation. Together, our results illustrate both the promise and the limitations of genomic offset as a predictive framework for widely distributed species. By presenting the first approach to scale the genomic offset to a broadly\u2010distributed forest tree, this study provides a foundation for integrating genomic, phenotypic, and ecological data to inform climate\u2010resilient forest management. Range\u2010wide common garden and provenance trials remain essential, yet they remain scarce for broadleaf species such as aspen. Integrating multiple data sources is critical for developing effective climate\u2010resilient forest management strategies.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/eva.70332","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]],"date-time":"2026-10-13T07:03:19Z","timestamp":1791874999000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Assessing Future Maladaptation Risk in the Keystone Species\n                    <i>Populus tremuloides<\/i>"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2551-2232","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Melanie","family":"Zacharias","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for System and Integrated Biology (IBIS), Universit\u00e9 Laval  Qu\u00e9bec Qu\u00e9bec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5568-2788","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Roos","family":"Goessen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for System and Integrated Biology (IBIS), Universit\u00e9 Laval  Qu\u00e9bec Qu\u00e9bec Canada"},{"name":"D\u00e9partement de biologie chimie et g\u00e9ographie, Universit\u00e9 de Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Rimouski  Rimouski, Qu\u00e9bec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2341-5458","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Christian","family":"Wehenkel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Silvicultura e Industria de la Madera, Universidad Juarez del Estado de Durango  Durango Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5144-5147","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Benjamin","family":"Marquis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laurentian Forest Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada  Qu\u00e9bec Qu\u00e9bec Canada"},{"name":"D\u00e9partement de Science et Technologie Universit\u00e9 T\u00c9LUQ  Montr\u00e9al, Qu\u00e9bec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2337-2299","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chen","family":"Ding","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn University  Auburn Alabama USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-3929-4077","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fred","family":"Raley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Western Gulf Forest Tree Improvement Program, Texas A&amp;M Forest Service  College Station Texas USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jerritt","family":"Nunneley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Texas Biomedical Research Institute  San Antonio Texas USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8621-9801","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nathalie","family":"Isabel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for System and Integrated Biology (IBIS), Universit\u00e9 Laval  Qu\u00e9bec Qu\u00e9bec Canada"},{"name":"Laurentian Forest Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada  Qu\u00e9bec Qu\u00e9bec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9344-6348","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ilga","family":"Porth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for System and Integrated Biology (IBIS), Universit\u00e9 Laval  Qu\u00e9bec Qu\u00e9bec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/eva.12293"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev\u2010ecolsys\u2010110512\u2010135747"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1752\u20104571.2007.00013.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5558\/tfc2011\u2010092"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1932983"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aan4380"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/eap.2438"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.14060"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/ffgc.2024.1454329"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Breiman L. 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