{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,7]],"date-time":"2026-10-07T13:39:30Z","timestamp":1791380370673,"version":"4.3.3"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,2,27]],"date-time":"2014-02-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1393459200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000139","name":"US Environmental Protection Agency","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["R 833778"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R 833778"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000139","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2014,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Since first introduced to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">WNV<\/jats:styled-content>\n                    ) has spread rapidly across the continent, threatening wildlife populations and posing serious health risks to humans. While\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">WNV<\/jats:styled-content>\n                    incidence has been linked to environmental factors, particularly temperature and rainfall, little is known about how future climate change may affect the spread of the disease. Using available data on\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">WNV<\/jats:styled-content>\n                    infections in vectors and hosts collected from 2003\u20132011 and using a suite of 10 species distribution models, weighted according to their predictive performance, we modeled the incidence of\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">WNV<\/jats:styled-content>\n                    under current climate conditions at a continental scale. Models were found to accurately predict spatial patterns of\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">WNV<\/jats:styled-content>\n                    that were then used to examine how future climate may affect the spread of the disease. Predictions were accurate for cases of human\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">WNV<\/jats:styled-content>\n                    infection in the following year (2012), with areas reporting infections having significantly higher probability of presence as predicted by our models. Projected geographic distributions of\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">WNV<\/jats:styled-content>\n                    in North America under future climate for 2050 and 2080 show an expansion of suitable climate for the disease, driven by warmer temperatures and lower annual precipitation that will result in the exposure of new and na\u00efve host populations to the virus with potentially serious consequences. Our risk assessment identifies current and future hotspots of West Nile virus where mitigation efforts should be focused and presents an important new approach for monitoring vector\u2010borne disease under climate change.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.12534","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,2,27]],"date-time":"2014-02-27T00:22:47Z","timestamp":1393460567000},"page":"2417-2425","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":92,"title":["A continental risk assessment of West Nile virus under climate change"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"20","author":[{"given":"Ryan J.","family":"Harrigan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Tropical Research Institute of the Environment and Sustainability University of California 619 Charles E. Young Drive East Los Angeles California 90095 USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Henri A.","family":"Thomassen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Comparative Zoology Institute of Evolution and Ecology University of T\u00fcbingen Auf der Morgenstelle 28 D\u201072076 T\u00fcbingen Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wolfgang","family":"Buermann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds Woodhouse Lane Leeds LS2 9JT United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thomas B.","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Tropical Research Institute of the Environment and Sustainability University of California 619 Charles E. Young Drive East Los Angeles California 90095 USA"},{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of California 621 Charles E. 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