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The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures (\u2018forcing\u2019) typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures (\u2018chilling\u2019) while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height\u2010 and diameter\u2010growth initiation in coast Douglas\u2010fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field\u2010based and controlled\u2010environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, toward lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter\u2010growth initiation than height\u2010growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas\u2010fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13328","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,4,22]],"date-time":"2016-04-22T23:00:59Z","timestamp":1461366059000},"page":"3712-3723","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":90,"title":["Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas\u2010fir"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"22","author":[{"given":"Kevin R.","family":"Ford","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station 3625 93rd Ave SW Olympia WA 98512 USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Constance A.","family":"Harrington","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station 3625 93rd Ave SW Olympia WA 98512 USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sheel","family":"Bansal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station 3625 93rd Ave SW Olympia WA 98512 USA"},{"name":"US Geological Survey Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center 8711 37th St SE Jamestown ND 58401 USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter J.","family":"Gould","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station 3625 93rd Ave SW Olympia WA 98512 USA"},{"name":"Washington Department of Natural Resources 1111 Washington St SE Olympia WA 98501 USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"J. 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