{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T20:58:03Z","timestamp":1791838683451,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":68,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"21","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,6]],"date-time":"2021-09-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1630886400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100016270","name":"Global Challenges Research Fund","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NE\/P021050\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NE\/P021050\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100016270","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100016270","name":"Global Challenges Research Fund","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NE\/P021107\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NE\/P021107\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100016270","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010661","name":"Horizon 2020 Framework Programme","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["869300"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["869300"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010661","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Marine spatial planning that addresses ocean climate\u2010driven change (\u2018climate\u2010smart MSP\u2019) is a global aspiration to support economic growth, food security and ecosystem sustainability. Ocean climate change (\u2018CC\u2019) modelling may become a key decision\u2010support tool for MSP, but traditional modelling analysis and communication challenges prevent their broad uptake. We employed MSP\u2010specific ocean climate modelling analyses to inform a real\u2010life MSP process; addressing how nature conservation and fisheries could be adapted to CC. We found that the currently planned distribution of these activities may become unsustainable during the policy's implementation due to CC, leading to a shortfall in its sustainability and blue growth targets. Significant, climate\u2010driven ecosystem\u2010level shifts in ocean components underpinning designated sites and fishing activity were estimated, reflecting different magnitudes of shifts in benthic versus pelagic, and inshore versus offshore habitats. Supporting adaptation, we then identified: CC refugia (areas where the ecosystem remains within the boundaries of its present state); CC hotspots (where climate drives the ecosystem towards a new state, inconsistent with each sectors\u2019 present use distribution); and for the first time, identified bright spots (areas where oceanographic processes drive range expansion opportunities that may support sustainable growth in the medium term). We thus create the means to: identify where sector\u2010relevant ecosystem change is attributable to CC; incorporate resilient delivery of conservation and sustainable ecosystem management aims into MSP; and to harness opportunities for blue growth where they exist. Capturing CC bright spots alongside refugia within protected areas may present important opportunities to meet sustainability targets while helping support the fishing sector in a changing climate. By capitalizing on the natural distribution of climate resilience within ocean ecosystems, such climate\u2010adaptive spatial management strategies could be seen as nature\u2010based solutions to limit the impact of CC on ocean ecosystems and dependent blue economy sectors, paving the way for climate\u2010smart MSP.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.15827","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,6]],"date-time":"2021-09-06T11:50:41Z","timestamp":1630929041000},"page":"5514-5531","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":87,"title":["Bright spots as climate\u2010smart marine spatial planning tools for conservation and blue growth"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"27","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7067-3177","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ana M.","family":"Queir\u00f3s","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Plymouth Marine Laboratory Plymouth UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5046-5143","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Elizabeth","family":"Talbot","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plymouth Marine Laboratory Plymouth UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicola J.","family":"Beaumont","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plymouth Marine Laboratory Plymouth UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paul J.","family":"Somerfield","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plymouth Marine Laboratory Plymouth UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Susan","family":"Kay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plymouth Marine Laboratory Plymouth UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christine","family":"Pascoe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plymouth Marine Laboratory Plymouth UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Simon","family":"Dedman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hopkins Marine Station Stanford University Stanford California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4677-6077","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jose A.","family":"Fernandes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"AZTI\u2010Tecnalia, Marine Research Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA) Bizkaia Spain"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alexander","family":"Jueterbock","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facutly of Biosciences and Aquaculture Nord University Bodo Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter I.","family":"Miller","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plymouth Marine Laboratory Plymouth UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sevrine F.","family":"Sailley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plymouth Marine Laboratory Plymouth UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7658-5274","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gianluca","family":"Sar\u00e1","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth and Marine Science Laboratory of Ecology University of Palermo Palermo Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liam M.","family":"Carr","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National University of Ireland Galway Ireland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Melanie C.","family":"Austen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plymouth Marine Laboratory Plymouth UK"},{"name":"Plymouth University Plymouth UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steve","family":"Widdicombe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plymouth Marine Laboratory Plymouth UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1334-4887","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gil","family":"Rilov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute of Oceanography Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Research Institute Haifa Israel"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2858-8622","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lisa A.","family":"Levin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen C.","family":"Hull","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ABPmer Southampton UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Suzannah F.","family":"Walmsley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ABPmer Southampton UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Caitriona","family":"Nic Aonghusa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Marine Institute Oranmore Ireland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4324\/9781849776462"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/d41586-018-05869-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/meps298189"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","first-page":"477","volume-title":"IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate","author":"Bindoff N.","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature10082"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","volume-title":"Introduction to meta\u2010analysis","author":"Borenstein M.","year":"2011"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/icb\/ict041"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/aqc.2248"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","first-page":"305","article-title":"Ocean governance for the 21st century: Making marine zoning climate change adaptable","volume":"36","author":"Craig R. K.","year":"2012","journal-title":"Harvard Environmental Law Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0197\u20102456(86)90046\u20102"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","series-title":"IOC Manual and Guides (Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and Man and the Bioshpere Programme). No. 53","volume-title":"Marine spatial planning: A step\u2010by\u2010step approach toward ecosystem\u2010based management","author":"Ehler C.","year":"2009"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","unstructured":"European Commission. (2019).The European green deal."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00318884.2019.1628576"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/meps09064"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41893-020-0513-x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate3422"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsci.2018.12.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10533-017-0350-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature11397"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2017124117"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2011GL050087"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_23_1","volume-title":"Statistical methodology in meta\u2010analysis","author":"Hedges L. V.","year":"1982"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.12726"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_25_1","volume-title":"The ocean as a solution to climate change","author":"Hoegh\u2010Guldberg O.","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aaz4390"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_27_1","volume-title":"Increasing marine protected area coverage for effective marine biodiversity conservation","author":"International Union for Conservation of Nature","year":"2016"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_28_1","unstructured":"IOC\u2010UNESCO. (2018).IOC resolution EC\u2010LI.1 United Nations decade of ocean science for sustainable development(3\u20136 July 2018). Resolution XXIX\u20101. IOC\u2010UNESCO:3pp."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_29_1","series-title":"Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","volume-title":"Climate change 2013: The physical science basis","author":"IPCC","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_30_1","first-page":"1","volume-title":"A special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","author":"IPCC","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_31_1","first-page":"20","volume-title":"Department for housing, planning and local government","author":"Irish Government","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_32_1","unstructured":"Irish Government. (2018).National marine planning framework baseline report. P. a. L. G. Department of Housing. Dublin: 107."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_33_1","unstructured":"Irish Government. (2019a).National marine planning framework\u2014Consultation draft. P. a. L. G. Department of Housing. Ireland: 200."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_34_1","unstructured":"Irish Government. (2019b).Biodiversity climate change sectoral adaptation plan. H. a. t. G. Department of Culture. Ireland: 84."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_35_1","volume-title":"Guidance for using the IUCN. Global standard for nature\u2010based solutions. A user\u2010friendly framework for the verification, design and scaling up of nature\u2010based solutions","author":"IUCN","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/conl.12634"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.14730"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_38_1","volume-title":"Deep\u2010ocean climate change impacts on habitats, fish and fisheries","author":"Levin L. A.","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.15223"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1900194116"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aad5443"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/wea.2543"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_43_1","first-page":"15","volume-title":"Marine climate change impacts partnership: MCCIP science review 2017","author":"McCarthy G. D.","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_44_1","volume-title":"Ocean fronts data for the Northwest European Shelf and Mediterranean Sea from 1991 up to 2100","author":"Miller P. I.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2769"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/esr00558"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/icesjms\/fsv231"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.marpol.2017.05.031"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/1438\u2010390X.12050"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_50_1","article-title":"Climate\u2010driven shifts in marine species ranges: Scaling from organisms to communities","volume":"12","author":"Pinsky M. L.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Annual Review of Marine Science"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.marpol.2019.02.050"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.12675"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13423"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecm.1366"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_55_1","first-page":"231","volume-title":"Spatial data and evidence projects, project 4: Marine spatial planning and climate change\u2014Vulnerabilities and opportunities for Ireland\u2019s marine ecosystem services and marine\u2010based activities under climate change","author":"Queir\u00f3s A.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_56_1","volume-title":"R: A language and environment for statistical computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/eap.2009"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gecco.2019.e00566"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmars.2019.00470"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.14296"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2007117117"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.15513"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmars.2017.00413"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2017.11.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.145918"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_66_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aay9969"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_67_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-011-0148-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_68_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.62508"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_69_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.15094"}],"container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/gcb.15827","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/gcb.15827","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/gcb.15827","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,18]],"date-time":"2024-01-18T08:41:35Z","timestamp":1705567295000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/gcb.15827"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,6]]},"references-count":68,"journal-issue":{"issue":"21","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,11]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/gcb.15827"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.15827","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1354-1013","1365-2486"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1354-1013","type":"print"},{"value":"1365-2486","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,6]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2021-02-22","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-08-02","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-09-06","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}