{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,18]],"date-time":"2026-07-18T05:12:05Z","timestamp":1784351525843,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":73,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"21","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,29]],"date-time":"2021-08-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1630195200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["1U01CK000509\u201001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1U01CK000509\u201001"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>The effects of climate change on infectious diseases are a topic of considerable interest and discussion. We studied West Nile virus (WNV) in New York (NY) and Connecticut (CT) using a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model climate change scenario, which allows us to examine the effects of climate change and variability on WNV risk at county level. We chose WNV because it is well studied, has caused over 50,000 reported human cases, and over 2200 deaths in the United States. The ecological impacts have been substantial (e.g., millions of avian deaths), and economic impacts include livestock deaths, morbidity, and healthcare\u2010related expenses. We trained two Random Forest models with observational climate data and human cases to predict future levels of WNV based on future weather conditions. The Regional Model used present\u2010day data from NY and CT, whereas the Analog Model was fit for states most closely matching the predicted future conditions in the region. Separately, we predicted changes to mosquito\u2010based WNV risk using a trait\u2010based thermal biology approach (Mosquito Model). The WRF model produced control simulations (present day) and pseudo\u2010global warming simulations (future). The Regional and Analog Models predicted an overall increase in human cases of WNV under future warming. However, the Analog Model did not predict as strong of an increase in the number of human cases as the Regional Model, and predicted a decrease in cases in some counties that currently experience high numbers of WNV cases. The Mosquito Model also predicted a decrease in risk in current high\u2010risk areas, with an overall reduction in the population\u2010weighted relative risk (but an increase in area\u2010weighted risk). The Mosquito Model supports the Analog Model as making more realistic predictions than the Regional Model. All three models predicted a geographic increase in WNV cases across NY and CT.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.15842","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,15]],"date-time":"2021-08-15T16:57:02Z","timestamp":1629046622000},"page":"5430-5445","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":23,"title":["West Nile virus is predicted to be more geographically widespread in New York State and Connecticut under future climate change"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"27","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5256-6274","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexander C.","family":"Keyel","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Infectious Diseases Wadsworth Center New York State Department of Health Albany New York USA"},{"name":"Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany SUNY Albany New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1707-6963","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ajay","family":"Raghavendra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany SUNY Albany New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6589-4728","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexander T.","family":"Ciota","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Infectious Diseases Wadsworth Center New York State Department of Health Albany New York USA"},{"name":"Department of Biomedical Sciences School of Public Health University at Albany SUNY Rensselaer New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8871-0602","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Oliver","family":"Elison Timm","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany SUNY Albany New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.3413"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1239401"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2987\/8756\u2010971X\u201028.4s.137"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2004.4.360"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1001146"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","volume-title":"The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2018: E.T22705874A131399674","author":"BirdLife International","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1010933404324"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","volume-title":"Final cumulative maps & data for 1999\u20132018","author":"CDC","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","volume-title":"Nationally notifiable arboviral diseases reported to ArboNET: Data release guidelines","author":"CDC","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph10073052"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1756\u20103305\u20106\u2010305"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/v11111013"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1603\/ME13003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","volume-title":"West Nile virus statistics","author":"Connecticut State Department of Public Health","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/30.2.449"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2018.04.028"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.828"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1756\u20103305\u20105\u2010199"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1603\/0022\u20102585(2005)042[0838:CRDCRA[2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2021.0049"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u20109\u20101937\u20102016"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1507747112"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2017.06.031"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.14\u20100737"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","first-page":"65","article-title":"A simple sequentially rejective multiple test procedure","volume":"6","author":"Holm S.","year":"1979","journal-title":"Scandinavian Journal of Statistics"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/wcc.382"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2011.10\u20100679"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.meegid.2015.01.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1603\/0022\u20102585\u201039.1.99"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0217854"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2006.3575"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2010.10\u20100005"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1103.040364"},{"issue":"5","key":"e_1_2_10_35_1","first-page":"188","article-title":"Climate, evolution, and the transmission of West Nile virus in mosquitoes","volume":"77","author":"Kilpatrick A. M.","year":"2007","journal-title":"The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1266219"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature05829"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph10041505"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/08\u20100079.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2006.0590"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_10_41_1","first-page":"18","article-title":"Classification and regression by randomForest","volume":"2","author":"Liaw A.","year":"2002","journal-title":"R News"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019GH000202"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382\u2010016\u20103327\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/currents.outbreaks.f0b3978230599a56830ce30cb9ce0500"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_45_1","volume-title":"IPUMS National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 12.0 [database]","author":"Manson S.","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0227679"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1203.051004"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11250\u2010007\u20109055\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.13335"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1307135110"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1603\/me11193"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM\u2010D\u201015\u20100026.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_53_1","volume-title":"Communicable disease annual reports and related information","author":"NYSDOH","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature01286"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2016.2078"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304\u20103800(02)00056\u2010X"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598\u2010020\u201076231\u2010x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI\u20103256.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382\u2010018\u20104148\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584\u2010011\u20100149\u2010y"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2015.1822"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0163863"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/S7940\u2010016\u20100105\u20104"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.58511"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.healthplace.2010.08.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_66_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2017.11.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_67_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2000.62.413"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_68_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584\u2010011\u20100148\u2010z"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_69_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598\u2010017\u201005185\u20104"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_70_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2009.0035"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_71_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/070037"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_72_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0606292104"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_73_1","volume-title":"GRIDMET_downloader.js","author":"Wimberly M. C.","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_74_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2008.79.581"}],"container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/gcb.15842","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/gcb.15842","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/gcb.15842","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,18]],"date-time":"2024-01-18T08:42:36Z","timestamp":1705567356000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/gcb.15842"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,29]]},"references-count":73,"journal-issue":{"issue":"21","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,11]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/gcb.15842"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.15842","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1354-1013","1365-2486"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1354-1013","type":"print"},{"value":"1365-2486","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,29]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2021-03-05","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-08-02","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-08-29","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}