{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T02:40:09Z","timestamp":1790217609883,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":127,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,18]],"date-time":"2021-11-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1637193600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005416","name":"Norges Forskningsr\u00e5d","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["FRIMEDBIO project288551"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["FRIMEDBIO project288551"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005416","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    After several pandemics over the last two millennia, the wildlife reservoirs of plague (\n                    <jats:italic>Yersinia pestis<\/jats:italic>\n                    ) now persist around the world, including in the western United States. Routine surveillance in this region has generated comprehensive records of human cases and animal seroprevalence, creating a unique opportunity to test how plague reservoirs are responding to environmental change. Here, we test whether animal and human data suggest that plague reservoirs and spillover risk have shifted since 1950. To do so, we develop a new method for detecting the impact of climate change on infectious disease distributions, capable of disentangling long\u2010term trends (signal) and interannual variation in both weather and sampling (noise). We find that plague foci are associated with high\u2010elevation rodent communities, and soil biochemistry may play a key role in the geography of long\u2010term persistence. In addition, we find that human cases are concentrated only in a small subset of endemic areas, and that spillover events are driven by higher rodent species richness (the amplification hypothesis) and climatic anomalies (the trophic cascade hypothesis). Using our detection model, we find that due to the changing climate, rodent communities at high elevations have become more conducive to the establishment of plague reservoirs\u2014with suitability increasing up to 40% in some places\u2014and that spillover risk to humans at mid\u2010elevations has increased as well, although more gradually. These results highlight opportunities for deeper investigation of plague ecology, the value of integrative surveillance for infectious disease geography, and the need for further research into ongoing climate change impacts.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.15966","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,19]],"date-time":"2021-11-19T01:24:55Z","timestamp":1637285095000},"page":"753-769","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":42,"title":["Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"28","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6960-8434","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Colin J.","family":"Carlson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Global Health Science and Security Georgetown University Medical Center Washington District of Columbia USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sarah N.","family":"Bevins","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"US Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service\u2013Wildlife Services National Wildlife Research Center Fort Collins Colorado USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Boris V.","family":"Schmid","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis Department of Biosciences University of Oslo Oslo Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2402.160122"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2007.76.365"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.17.2.434-464.2004"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2005.0906-7590.04253.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1099\/mic.0.2007\/016154-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","first-page":"447","article-title":"Lxix. A study of the bionomics of the common rat fleas and other species associated with human habitations, with special reference to the influence of temperature and humidity at various periods of the life history of the insect","volume":"13","author":"Bacot A.","year":"1914","journal-title":"The Journal of Hygiene"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","volume-title":"Interepizootic conservation of plague in its inveterate foci: Working hypotheses","author":"Baltazard M.","year":"1964"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-58053-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2020.08.014"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsbl.2008.0363"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/AEM.00593-17"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1749-4877.2011.00277.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2007.77.1103"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2012.1031"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1009092"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2018.2429"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1242\/jeb.114231"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2010.09-0247"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2010.0196"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2018.0218"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/nyas.13950"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2512.191081"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aad9837"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.13389"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_27_1","article-title":"Climate change will drive novel cross\u2010species viral transmission","author":"Carlson C. J.","year":"2020","journal-title":"bioRxiv"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/brv.12420"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41564-019-0435-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/JCM.00273-18"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/09-AOAS285"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_32_1","volume-title":"Laboratory manual of plague diagnostic tests. Center for Disease Control and Prevention","author":"Chu C. M.","year":"2000"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1749-4877.12546"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393-018-1337-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2007JAMC1356.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/10-1325.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_37_1","volume-title":"R package","author":"Dorie V.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1242\/jeb.122812"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1289\/EHP1509"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0035598"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1603\/033.046.0403"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/44.3.530"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1406.080029"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/204140"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmicb.2016.01174"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2014.02.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1099\/mic.0.028852-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.2005.030536.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_49_1","volume-title":"In Proceedings of the Vertebrate Pest Conference","author":"Gage K. L.","year":"1994"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2012.00768.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-020-2562-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000925"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.sste.2016.10.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-019-13049-w"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2012.0250"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0169748"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_57_1","volume-title":"R package","author":"Hiemstra P.","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4314\/thrb.v16i3.7"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_59_1","volume-title":"R Package","author":"Hollister J.","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-072X-8-38"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1008001"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature11883"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1817339116"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_64_1","first-page":"1183","article-title":"Natural preservation of plague in soil","volume":"56","author":"Karimi Y.","year":"1963","journal-title":"Bulletin de la Societe de Pathologie Exotique et de ses Filiales"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-018-3063-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_66_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2015.09.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_67_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41564-019-0376-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_68_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00442-006-0498-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_69_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2016.00281"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_70_1","volume-title":"The inventory of epidemic and epizootic manifestations of plague on the territory of the Former Soviet Union from 1876 to 2016","author":"Kutyrev V. V.","year":"2016"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_71_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jme\/tjaa113"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_72_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecs2.3138"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_73_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nmicrobiol.2015.8"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_74_1","first-page":"392","volume-title":"A history of plague in the United States of America","author":"Link V. B.","year":"1955"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_75_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2007.0568"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_76_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2013.1563"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_77_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2014.1714"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_78_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1807106115"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_79_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2010.10-0042"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_80_1","article-title":"Plague reservoir species throughout the world","author":"Mahmoudi A.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Integrative Zoology"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_81_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2016.00112"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_82_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep40022"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_83_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2402.171065"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_84_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0080279"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_85_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-014-0616-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_86_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.13335"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_87_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ng.705"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_88_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2007.0125"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_89_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trstmh.2009.07.028"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_90_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-072X-7-54"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_91_1","article-title":"Polygenic plague resistance in the great gerbil uncovered by population sequencing","author":"Nilsson P.","year":"2021","journal-title":"Authorea Preprints"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_92_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e01370","DOI":"10.1002\/ecm.1370","article-title":"A comprehensive evaluation of predictive performance of 33 species distribution models at species and community levels","author":"Norberg A.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ecological Monographs"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_93_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.1999.61.814"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_94_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2010.09-0426"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_95_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trstmh.2005.02.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_96_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.04395"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_97_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jvec.12405"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_98_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-14-382"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_99_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jis433"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_100_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2017.03.019"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_101_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(18)30730-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_102_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsbl.2014.0302"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_103_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0008620"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_104_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41590-020-0648-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_105_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41559-019-1060-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_106_1","volume-title":"R package","author":"Ross N.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_107_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0007213"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_108_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1015946108"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_109_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1412887112"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_110_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2302.160101"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_111_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/0012-9658(2001)082[0609:BATDEI]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_112_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/JB.00358-16"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_113_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002680"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_114_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-4-191"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_115_1","first-page":"283","article-title":"Epidemiological studies of plague in India: 1. The present position","volume":"23","author":"Seal S.","year":"1960","journal-title":"Bulletin of the World Health Organization"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_116_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(18)30024-X"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_117_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3133\/ds801"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_118_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apgeochem.2011.03.116"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_119_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0050003"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_120_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0602447103"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_121_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.190216"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_122_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-020-2189-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_123_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2014.03.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_124_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.1493"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_125_1","unstructured":"2012 Springer J. F. G. Warth S. M. Biesdorf C. Souza Yersinia pseudotuberculosis O III causes diarrhea in Brazilian cattleAdvances in Yersinia Research 107 110"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_126_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2012.1017"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_127_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2014.1846"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_128_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2013.3159"}],"container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/gcb.15966","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/gcb.15966","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/gcb.15966","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,12]],"date-time":"2023-11-12T16:40:03Z","timestamp":1699807203000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/gcb.15966"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,18]]},"references-count":127,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,2]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/gcb.15966"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.15966","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2021.02.26.433096","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1354-1013","1365-2486"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1354-1013","type":"print"},{"value":"1365-2486","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,18]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2021-06-25","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-09-04","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-11-18","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}