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In marine settings, climatic changes will predominantly manifest via warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and changes in hydrodynamics. <jats:italic>Lophelia pertusa<\/jats:italic>, the main reef\u2010forming coral present throughout the deep Atlantic Ocean (&gt;200\u2009m), is particularly sensitive to such stressors with stark reductions in suitable habitat predicted to accrue by 2100 in a business\u2010as\u2010usual scenario. However, with new occurrence data for this species along with higher\u2010resolution bathymetry and climate data, it may be possible to locate further climatic refugia. Here, we synthesize new and published biogeographic, geomorphological, and climatic data to build ensemble, multi\u2010scale habitat suitability models for <jats:italic>L. pertusa<\/jats:italic> on the continental margin of the southeast United States (SEUS). We then project these models in two timepoints (2050, 2100) and four climate change scenarios to characterize the occurrence probability of this critical cold\u2010water coral (CWC) habitat now and in the future. Our models reveal the extent of reef habitat in the SEUS and corroborate it as the largest currently known essentially continuous CWC reef province on earth, and also predict abundance of <jats:italic>L. pertusa<\/jats:italic> to identify key areas, including those outside areas currently protected from bottom\u2010contact fishing. Drastic reductions in <jats:italic>L. pertusa<\/jats:italic> climatic suitability index emerged primarily after 2050 and were concentrated at the shallower end (&lt;~550\u2009m) of the regional distribution under the Gulf Stream main axis. Our results thus suggest a depth\u2010driven climate refuge effect where deeper, cooler reef sites experience lesser declines. The strength of this effect increases with climate scenario severity. Taken together, our study has implications for the regional and global management of this species, portending changes in the biodiversity reliant on CWC habitats and the critical ecosystem services they provide.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.16415","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,2]],"date-time":"2022-09-02T09:05:08Z","timestamp":1662109508000},"page":"7108-7125","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":25,"title":["Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef\u2010building cold\u2010water coral on the southeast <scp>US<\/scp> margin"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"28","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1719-7132","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ryan","family":"Gasbarro","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology Temple University  Philadelphia Pennsylvania USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Derek","family":"Sowers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research  Durham New Hampshire USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alex","family":"Margolin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology Temple University  Philadelphia Pennsylvania USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Erik E.","family":"Cordes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology Temple University  Philadelphia Pennsylvania USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12862\u2010016\u20100654\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI\u2010D\u201019\u20100117.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041\u2010210X.13675"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.9523"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/meps13566"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558\u2010021\u201001097\u20104"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00338\u2010009\u20100581\u2010x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.13469"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmars.2021.660648"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.dsr2.2012.12.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.dsr.2017.05.009"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365\u20102486.2009.02000.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.31235\/osf.io\/nwxae"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41561\u2010021\u201000699\u2010z"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/meps08361"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10021\u2010001\u20100045\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmars.2015.00037"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-85-352-7295-6.50003-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.13414"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2021.2117"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.dsr.2019.06.009"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.12898"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558\u2010019\u20100486\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_25_1","volume-title":"The second world ocean assessment","author":"Cordes E. 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