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Despite its medical importance, uncertainty remains about its global distribution and the potential impacts of climate change on its future spread. Here, we investigate the distribution of\n                    <jats:italic>B. truncatus<\/jats:italic>\n                    , combining the outputs of correlative and mechanistic modelling methods to fully capitalize on both experimental and occurrence data of the species and to create a more reliable distribution forecast than ever constructed. We constructed ensemble correlative species distribution models using 273 occurrence points collected from different sources and a combination of climatic and (bio)physical environmental variables. Additionally, a mechanistic thermal suitability model was constructed, parameterized by recent life\u2010history data obtained through extensive lab\u2010based snail\u2010temperature experiments and supplemented with an extensive literature review. Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for\n                    <jats:italic>B. truncatus<\/jats:italic>\n                    encompasses the Sahel region, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean segment of Africa, stretching from Southern Europe to Mozambique. Regions identified as suitable by both methods generally coincide with areas exhibiting high urogenital schistosomiasis prevalence. Model projections into the future suggest an overall net increase in suitable area of up to 17%. New suitable habitat is in Southern Europe, the Middle East, and large parts of Central Africa, while suitable habitat will be lost in the Sahel region. The change in snail habitat suitability may substantially increase the risk of urogenital schistosomiasis transmission in parts of Africa and Southern Europe while reducing it in the Sahel region.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.17434","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,6]],"date-time":"2024-08-06T05:01:40Z","timestamp":1722920500000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":21,"title":["Climate change could fuel urinary schistosomiasis transmission in Africa and Europe"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"30","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9339-9908","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tiem","family":"van der Deure","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Section for Parasitology and Aquatic Pathobiology, Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences University of Copenhagen  Copenhagen Denmark"},{"name":"Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Globe Institute University of Copenhagen  Copenhagen Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2582-0959","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tim","family":"Maes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory for Biodiversity and Evolutionary Genomics, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science KU Leuven  Leuven Belgium"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8164-9757","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tine","family":"Huyse","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory for Biodiversity and Evolutionary Genomics, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science KU Leuven  Leuven Belgium"},{"name":"Division of Invertebrates, Department of Biology Royal Museum for Central Africa  Tervuren Belgium"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7858-7177","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anna\u2010Sofie","family":"Stensgaard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Section for Parasitology and Aquatic Pathobiology, Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences University of Copenhagen  Copenhagen Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_1_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(18)32279\u20107"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_1_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.01132"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_1_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.19\u20100831"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_1_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/663677"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_1_6_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Review of literature on abiotic factors influencing the distribution and life cycles of bilharziasis intermediate host snails","volume":"11","author":"Appleton C. 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