{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,11]],"date-time":"2026-10-11T03:11:00Z","timestamp":1791688260471,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,30]],"date-time":"2024-12-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1735516800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Agriculture serves as both a source and a sink of global greenhouse gases (GHGs), with agricultural intensification continuing to contribute to GHG emissions. Climate\u2010smart agriculture, encompassing both nature\u2010 and technology\u2010based actions, offers promising solutions to mitigate GHG emissions. We synthesized global data, between 1990 and 2021, from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations to analyze the impacts of agricultural activities on global GHG emissions from agricultural land, using structural equation modeling. We then obtained predictive estimates of agricultural GHG emissions for the future period of 2022\u20132050 using deep\u2010learning models. The FAO data show that, from 1990 to 2021, global livestock numbers, inorganic nitrogen (N) fertilizer use, crop residue, and irrigation area increased by 27%, 47%, 49%, and 37%, respectively. The increased livestock numbers contributed to the increases in CH\n                    <jats:sub>4<\/jats:sub>\n                    and N\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    O emissions, while inorganic N fertilizer, crop residue, and irrigation mainly contributed to the increases in N\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    O emissions. Emissions of CO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    decreased because of a 29% reduction in net forest loss. As a result of the reduced deforestation emissions, the overall agricultural GHG emissions declined from 11.50 to 10.89 GtCO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    eq from 1990 to 2021 despite the increases in livestock numbers, inorganic N fertilizer, crop residue, and irrigation. Looking ahead, our model predicts that if current agricultural trends persist, GHG emissions will rise to 11.82\u2009\u00b1\u20090.07 GtCO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    eq in 2050. However, maintaining agricultural GHG emissions at the 2021 level through 2050 is possible if the rate of reduction in net forest loss is doubled. Furthermore, if the rate is tripled, agricultural GHG emissions can be limited to 9.85\u2009\u00b1\u20090.07 GtCO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    eq in 2050. Our findings suggest that reductions in agricultural GHG emissions, alongside sustainable agricultural intensification and climate\u2010smart agricultural practices, can be achieved through parallel efforts emphasizing accelerated forest conservation.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.70015","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,30]],"date-time":"2024-12-30T06:48:57Z","timestamp":1735541337000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":124,"title":["Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Agriculture: Pathways to Sustainable Reductions"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"31","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5420-260X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lidong","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Nebraska\u2010Lincoln  Lincoln Nebraska USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0462-2339","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tala","family":"Awada","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Nebraska\u2010Lincoln  Lincoln Nebraska USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3964-2855","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yeyin","family":"Shi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Nebraska\u2010Lincoln  Lincoln Nebraska USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4146-8497","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Virginia L.","family":"Jin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Agroecosystem Management Research Unit USDA\u2010Agricultural Research Service (ARS)  Lincoln Nebraska USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3584-4142","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Michael","family":"Kaiser","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Nebraska\u2010Lincoln  Lincoln Nebraska USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agsy.2019.102749"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/agriculture9060130"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0038-0717(78)90095-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","first-page":"186","article-title":"Methane Emission From Enteric Fermentation: Methanogenesis and Fermentation","author":"Buccioni A.","year":"2015","journal-title":"Climate Change Impact on Livestock: Adaptation and Mitigation"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2020.120461"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/su13137207"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2011-4439"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fsufs.2020.00061"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmicb.2022.847005"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","volume-title":"Pathways Towards Lower Emissions\u2014A Global Assessment of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Mitigation Options From Livestock Agrifood Systems","author":"FAO","year":"2023"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","unstructured":"FAO.2024.\u201cName of Database: FAOSTAT.\u201dhttps:\/\/www.fao.org\/faostat\/en\/#data\/. 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Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","author":"IPCC","year":"2014"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","first-page":"4","volume-title":"2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse gas Inventories","author":"IPCC","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","first-page":"3056","volume-title":"Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","author":"IPCC","year":"2022"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10333-013-0390-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1475-2743.1997.tb00595.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/mr.46.1.43-70.1982"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","unstructured":"Lan X. P.Tans andK. 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