{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]],"date-time":"2026-09-25T03:46:21Z","timestamp":1790307981251,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":64,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,20]],"date-time":"2025-08-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1755648000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":19,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100014184","name":"R\u00e9gion Occitanie Pyr\u00e9n\u00e9es-M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100014184","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    The Asian tiger mosquito,\n                    <jats:italic>\n                      <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">Aedes albopictus<\/jats:styled-content>\n                      ,\n                    <\/jats:italic>\n                    is a competent vector of arboviruses, such as dengue. After its introduction into southern Europe, this invasive species has been rapidly spreading as well as causing autochthonous cases of arboviral diseases. Both\n                    <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic>\n                    presence and potential to transmit arboviruses are facilitated at warm temperatures; hence, global warming is expected to affect their presence in temperate regions. We use a climate\u2010 and environmental\u2010driven mechanistic modeling framework to investigate the impact of recent climate change on\n                    <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic>\n                    range expansion and its potential to transmit dengue in Western Europe. We simulate climatic suitability, adult density, and dengue transmission risk, which we compare with a large ensemble of entomological and epidemiological observations over the past 20\u2009years. Most importantly, we analyze a novel spatiotemporal dataset of colonized municipalities in metropolitan France to estimate the spread rate of\n                    <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic>\n                    and compare it with model predictions. Lastly, we analyze the sensitivity of entomological and epidemiological risk to changes in temperature, rainfall, and human density. Distribution of simulated mosquito populations and dengue transmission risk satisfactorily match entomological and dengue observations for Western Europe (AUC\u2009=\u20090.90 and 0.75 respectively). While lowlands in southern Europe were already climatically suitable for hosting\n                    <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic>\n                    around 2010, Western France, together with large populated cities, such as London, Zagreb, and Vienna, has become suitable recently. Importantly, the accelerating colonization of\n                    <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic>\n                    in France may be approaching the limit of its theoretical climatic niche; future expansion will depend on the climate\u2010driven enlargement of suitable areas. The area at risk of dengue transmission has recently expanded from the Mediterranean coasts over northern Spain and Western France. The sensitivity analysis suggests that climate change may expose medium\u2010sized cities to the highest epidemiological risk; this finding is consistent with recently reported dengue outbreaks in Europe.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.70414","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,20]],"date-time":"2025-08-20T07:01:07Z","timestamp":1755673267000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":25,"title":["<i>Aedes albopictus<\/i>\n                    Is Rapidly Invading Its Climatic Niche in France: Wider Implications for Biting Nuisance and Arbovirus Control in Western Europe"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"31","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5852-0015","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrea","family":"Radici","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"MIVEGEC (Universit\u00e9 de Montpellier, IRD, CNRS)  Montpellier France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pachka","family":"Hammami","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ASTRE (CIRAD, INRAE, Universit\u00e9 de Montpellier)  Montferrier\u2010sur\u2010Lez France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Arnaud","family":"Cannet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Direction g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de la Sant\u00e9, Centre de Crises Sanitaires  Paris France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gr\u00e9gory","family":"L'Ambert","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"EID M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e  Montpellier France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Guillaume","family":"Lacour","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Altopictus  P\u00e9rols France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Florence","family":"Fournet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MIVEGEC (Universit\u00e9 de Montpellier, IRD, CNRS)  Montpellier France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Claire","family":"Garros","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ASTRE (CIRAD, INRAE, Universit\u00e9 de Montpellier)  Montferrier\u2010sur\u2010Lez France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"H\u00e9l\u00e8ne","family":"Guis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ASTRE (CIRAD, INRAE, Universit\u00e9 de Montpellier)  Montferrier\u2010sur\u2010Lez France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Didier","family":"Fontenille","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MIVEGEC (Universit\u00e9 de Montpellier, IRD, CNRS)  Montpellier France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cyril","family":"Caminade","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ICTP  Trieste Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2807\/esw.12.36.03260\u2010en"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Barman S. J. C.Semenza P.Singh H.Sj\u00f6din J.Rockl\u00f6v andJ.Wallin.2024.\u201cA Climate and Population Dependent Diffusion Model Forecasts the Spread of Aedes Albopictus Mosquitoes in Europe.\u201dPreprint bioRxiv April 9.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2024.09.20.614113.","DOI":"10.1101\/2024.09.20.614113"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/evo.14029"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597\u2010023\u201002549\u20106"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rinp.2021.104687"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2020.0119"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2807\/1560\u20107917.ES.2024.29.20.2400271"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365\u20102656.13358"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467\u2010024\u201052144\u20105"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2012.0138"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1614303114"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584\u2010021\u201003159\u20100"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2542\u20105196(21)00132\u20107"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2017JD028200"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.69630"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011603"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1752\u20101688.1969.tb04897.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597\u2010024\u201003482\u2010y"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071\u2010022\u201005414\u20104"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586\u2010021\u201003405\u20106"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/sapm.12296"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/23754931.2015.1014272"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","unstructured":"ECDC.2024a.\u201cAedes aegypti\u2014Current Known Distribution: May 2024.\u201dhttps:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/publications\u2010data\/aedes\u2010aegypti\u2010current\u2010known\u2010distribution\u2010may\u20102024."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","unstructured":"ECDC.2024b.\u201cAedes Invasive Mosquitoes\u2014Current Known Distribution: July 2024.\u201dhttps:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/publications\u2010data\/aedes\u2010invasive\u2010mosquitoes\u2010current\u2010known\u2010distribution\u2010july\u20102024."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","unstructured":"ECDC.2024c.\u201cLocal Transmission of Dengue Virus in Mainland EU\/EEA 2010\u2010Present.\u201dhttps:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/all\u2010topics\u2010z\/dengue\/surveillance\u2010and\u2010disease\u2010data\/autochthonous\u2010transmission\u2010dengue\u2010virus\u2010eueea."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_1","unstructured":"ECDC.2024d.\u201cDengue Worldwide Overview.\u201dhttps:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/dengue\u2010monthly."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0149282"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2024.0319"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_1","volume-title":"GBIF Occurrence Download [Dataset]","author":"GBIF.org","year":"2024"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2024.107324"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1603\/0022\u20102585\u201039.1.4"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41564\u2010019\u20100376\u2010y"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.08347"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0145311"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2023.162484"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0089783"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2807\/1560\u20107917.ES.2017.22.44.17\u201000685"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365\u20102664.13480"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2018.0761"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0009153"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_42_1","unstructured":"Minist\u00e8re des Solidarit\u00e9s et de la Sant\u00e9.2019.\u201cArr\u00eat\u00e9 du 23 juillet 2019 relatif aux modalit\u00e9s de mise en \u0153uvre des missions de surveillance entomologique d'intervention autour des d\u00e9tections et de prospection traitement et travaux autour des lieux fr\u00e9quent\u00e9s par les cas humains de maladies transmises par les moustiques vecteurs. Lexbase \u00e9diteur juridique.\u201dhttps:\/\/www.lexbase.fr\/texte\u2010de\u2010loi\/52771886\u2010art\u20101\u2010arrete\u2010du\u201023\u2010juillet\u20102019\u2010relatif\u2010aux\u2010modalites\u2010de\u2010mise\u2010en\u2010uvre\u2010des\u2010missions\u2010de\u2010surveillance\u2010e."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.13335"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005568"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.1306556"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph15040820"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.micinf.2009.05.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4081\/gh.2021.996"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0044515"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0125600"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003854"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2024.173054"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0151217"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0007213"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2807\/1560\u20107917.ES.2024.29.47.2400713"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_56_1","unstructured":"Sant\u00e9 Publique France.2024.\u201cChikungunya Dengue Et Zika\u2014Donn\u00e9es De La Surveillance Renforc\u00e9e En France Hexagonale 2024.\u201dhttps:\/\/www.santepubliquefrance.fr\/maladies\u2010et\u2010traumatismes\/maladies\u2010a\u2010transmission\u2010vectorielle\/chikungunya\/articles\/donnees\u2010en\u2010france\u2010metropolitaine\/chikungunya\u2010dengue\u2010et\u2010zika\u2010donnees\u2010de\u2010la\u2010surveillance\u2010renforcee\u2010en\u2010france\u2010hexagonale\u20102024."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/mec.15071"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41579\u2010024\u201001026\u20100"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.01393"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph10051698"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0227407"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/664709"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2807\/1560\u20107917.ES.2023.28.26.2200666"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2542\u20105196(23)00252\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071\u2010024\u201006460\u2010w"}],"container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/gcb.70414","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,17]],"date-time":"2025-10-17T09:28:20Z","timestamp":1760693300000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/gcb.70414"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,8]]},"references-count":64,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/gcb.70414"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.70414","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2025.02.14.638223","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1354-1013","1365-2486"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1354-1013","type":"print"},{"value":"1365-2486","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-03-05","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-07-09","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-08-20","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e70414"}}