{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,8]],"date-time":"2026-03-08T15:11:06Z","timestamp":1772982666465,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":73,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,5]],"date-time":"2025-11-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1762300800000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":4,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,5]],"date-time":"2025-11-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1762300800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":4,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,1]],"date-time":"2025-11-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1761955200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000076","name":"Directorate for Biological Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2228256"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2228256"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000076","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Across many ecto\u2010 and endothermic organisms, climate change has induced a general shift towards smaller body sizes. Several existing hypotheses (e.g., Temperature Size Rule\u2014TSR, metabolic theory) contribute to our understanding of climate\u2010driven changes in body size. However, empirical support for climate\u2010induced reductions in body size is mixed with some species growing larger under warmer temperatures, and underlying mechanisms are under debate. To address these inconsistencies, we used Bayesian hierarchical modeling to determine if mean length\u2010at\u2010age (proxy for growth) changed from 1945 to 2020 for age classes of 13 freshwater fish species. Then, we used boosted regression trees (BRTs) to disentangle the impacts of climate change on growth from other environmental factors. Hierarchical modeling revealed that 37% of age classes were decreasing in mean length through time (69% were qualitatively decreasing). BRTs demonstrated that growing degree days and mean annual surface water temperature had varying effects on growth. For cold\u2010and cool\u2010water adapted fishes, length\u2010at\u2010age usually increased as a function of degree days but decreased as a function of surface temperature. Warm\u2010water adapted fishes, however, typically decreased in response to both degree days and surface temperature. The direction of change in length\u2010at\u2010age as a function of surface temperature corresponded to the direction of change over time for 62% (8\/13) of species. Overall, we found widespread decreases in length, including age classes from all thermal guilds and juveniles (contrary to TSR assumptions). Mixed results in prior literature may result from choosing different variables to represent climate warming and\/or not considering age\u2010specific length responses. When specific climate variables and age are considered, climate change effects on body size may be more predictable at large temporal and spatial scales than previously thought. Continued decreases in length for the youngest and oldest fishes could lead to biodiversity loss and diminished ecosystem functions and services.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.70584","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,5]],"date-time":"2025-11-05T09:27:08Z","timestamp":1762334828000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Long\u2010Term and Regional\u2010Scale Data Reveal Divergent Trends of Different Climate Variables on Fish Body Size Over 75\u2009Years"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"31","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0772-4920","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Peter J.","family":"Flood","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School for Environment and Sustainability University of Michigan  Ann Arbor Michigan USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kaitlin E.","family":"Schiller","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School for Environment and Sustainability University of Michigan  Ann Arbor Michigan USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Katelyn B. S.","family":"King","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Michigan Department of Natural Resources Institute for Fisheries Research  Ann Arbor Michigan USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Andrew D.","family":"Runyon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School for Environment and Sustainability University of Michigan  Ann Arbor Michigan USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kevin E.","family":"Wehrly","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Michigan Department of Natural Resources Institute for Fisheries Research  Ann Arbor Michigan USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4161-3554","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Karen M.","family":"Alofs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School for Environment and Sustainability University of Michigan  Ann Arbor Michigan USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/faf.12442"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1139\/er\u20102019\u20100076"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1139\/cjfas\u20102021\u20100343"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.12853"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biosci\/biae131"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2504(08)60212-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.70296"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsbl.2012.1103"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41559\u2010020\u20101171\u20100"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.4270"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.1213118"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cub.2017.07.069"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5061\/dryad.0nj49"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/oik.10643"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/03-9000"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v080.i01"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365\u20102435.14467"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2424339"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","unstructured":"Dewitz J. andUS Geological Survey.2006.\u201cNational Land Cover Database (NLCD).\u201dhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.5066\/P9HBR9V3."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365\u20102656.2008.01390.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1210460109"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2011.03.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1139\/cjfas\u20102024\u20100266"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13462"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","first-page":"193","article-title":"Largemouth Bass Management in Wisconsin: Intraspecific and Interspecific Implications of Abundance Increases","volume":"82","author":"Hansen J. F.","year":"2015","journal-title":"American Fisheries Society Symposium"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_1","unstructured":"Hasnain S.2010.\u201cKey Ecological Temperature Metrics for Canadian Freshwater Fishes.\u201d"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1577\/1548\u20108446(2003)28[18:dassp]2.0.co;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.14753"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_1","unstructured":"Hijamns R. J. S.Phillips J.Leathwick andJ.Elith.2023.\u201cdismo: Species Distribution Modeling (1.3\u201014).\u201d"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/icesjms\/fst200"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsbl.2014.1032"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1577\/t08\u2010076.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.14637"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10750\u2010012\u20101182\u20101"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365\u20102656.13491"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/eva.12123"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.06798"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597\u2010025\u201005241\u2010z"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.ado2705"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.12695"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2100695118\/\u2010\/DCSupplemental"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.adg6006"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1139\/cjfas\u20102020\u20100169"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.13504"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/faf.12297"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467\u2010020\u201017726\u2010z"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1139\/f88-003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/02705060.1998.9663636"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2265510"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1744-7429.2007.00272.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/tafs.10338"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/03632415.2016.1160894"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/fsh.10660"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/23308249.2019.1701407"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00027\u2010012\u20100274\u20103"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1139\/f83-213"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/1747423X.2016.1147619"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.16626"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/gigascience\/gix101"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.13346"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecy.3967"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biosci\/biad039"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/06\u20101946.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jtbi.1996.0224"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_66_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1139\/F10\u2010041"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_67_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/brv.12653"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_68_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1139\/cjfas\u20102023\u20100233"},{"issue":"7","key":"e_1_2_10_69_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Status and Trends of Michigan Inland Lake Resources, 2002\u20132007","volume":"28","author":"Wehrly K. E.","year":"2015","journal-title":"Fisheries"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_70_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10641\u2010020\u201001009\u2010z"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_71_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/lno.10557"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_72_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2005.04.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_73_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.13989"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_74_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467\u2010024\u201054533\u20102"}],"container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/gcb.70584","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/gcb.70584","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/gcb.70584","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/gcb.70584","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,8]],"date-time":"2026-03-08T08:51:53Z","timestamp":1772959913000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/gcb.70584"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]},"references-count":73,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/gcb.70584"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.70584","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1354-1013","1365-2486"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1354-1013","type":"print"},{"value":"1365-2486","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-06-12","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-09-27","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-11-05","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e70584"}}