{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,24]],"date-time":"2026-10-24T15:29:11Z","timestamp":1792855751390,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":106,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,6]],"date-time":"2025-11-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1762387200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":5,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,1]],"date-time":"2025-11-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1761955200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Climate change rapidly drives species range dynamics, prompting many terrestrial organisms to shift northward to higher latitudes and forcing new species\u2013species and species\u2013environment interactions. The blacklegged tick,\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>Ixodes scapularis<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    , a biological vector of human pathogens including\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>Borrelia burgdorferi<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    (the bacteria causing Lyme disease), is undergoing rapid and persistent expansion into Canada, exposing new human populations to zoonotic diseases. Here, we used an ensembled forecasting approach to construct niche models of\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>I. scapularis'<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    current and future distribution and to identify the environmental drivers of habitat range. Georeferenced occurrence points were acquired from community science programs (eTick and iNaturalist) between 2017 and 2022 in Canada and the United States. We also collected high\u2010resolution environmental data using a spacing of approximately 1\u2009km. We carried out 4704 model iterations across two datasets, 12 algorithms, and 10 climate profiles using 40 environmental variables. We extrapolated select models over three time periods, 2011\u20132040, 2041\u20132070, and 2071\u20132100, across two projected climate scenarios, SSP5\u20108.5 and SSP3\u20107.0, incorporating 2094 future outcomes of\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>I. scapularis<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    distribution. Our ensembles (AUC: 0.9565\u2009\u00b1\u20090.0065; TSS: 0.8435\u2009\u00b1\u20090.0155; Kappa: 0.819\u2009\u00b1\u20090.014) identified temperature, precipitation, biomass production (NPP), length of the growing season, climate moisture index, and number of yearly degree days as the variables that best explained\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>I. scapularis<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    distribution. Further changes to these climate conditions will result in continued\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>I. scapularis<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    range expansion, with, at the highest estimate, an increased niche area of ~248% (447,532\u2009km\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    to 1,556,760\u2009km\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    ) and, at the lowest estimate, by ~205% (409,475\u2009km\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    to 1,247,689\u2009km\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    ) before the turn of the century. These distributional niche changes coincide with a northern latitude limit reaching as far as ~48\u00b0\u2009N by 2040, ~50\u00b0\u2009N by 2070, and ~52\u00b0\u2009N by 2100. These findings highlight the invasive potential of\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>I. scapularis<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    , with implications for public health and changing ecosystem dynamics.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.70591","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,6]],"date-time":"2025-11-06T11:33:04Z","timestamp":1762428784000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["Rapid Northward Expansion of the Blacklegged Tick,\n                    <scp>\n                      <i>Ixodes scapularis<\/i>\n                    <\/scp>\n                    , in Response to Climate Change"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"31","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0008-5512-8366","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jacob R.","family":"Westcott","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Science and the Environment Grenfell Campus, Memorial University of Newfoundland  Corner Brook Newfoundland Canada"},{"name":"Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service  Corner Brook Newfoundland Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0940-4901","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joseph J.","family":"Bowden","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Science and the Environment Grenfell Campus, Memorial University of Newfoundland  Corner Brook Newfoundland Canada"},{"name":"Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service  Corner Brook Newfoundland Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3876-4829","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jade","family":"Savage","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological Sciences Bishop's University  Sherbrooke Quebec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8723-5763","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Karen M.","family":"Doody","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Science and the Environment Grenfell Campus, Memorial University of Newfoundland  Corner Brook Newfoundland Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","unstructured":"AdaptWest Project.2022.\u201cGridded Current and Projected Climate Data for North America at 1km Resolution Generated Using the ClimateNA v7.30 Software (Wang et\u00a0al. 2022).\u201d [Data File]. 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