{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T00:50:48Z","timestamp":1787014248514,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":88,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]],"date-time":"2026-01-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767744000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":6,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004418","name":"Vrije Universiteit Brussel","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004418","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Warming winter temperatures are driving range expansion of tropical, cold\u2010sensitive mangroves into temperate ecosystems. Along the Atlantic coast of North America, the mangrove range limit is particularly sensitive to climate variability and historical data demonstrate that the mangrove\u2010salt marsh ecotone on this coast has shifted recurrently during recent centuries. However, a comprehensive understanding of how this mangrove\u2010salt marsh ecotone may shift in the future remains lacking. Here, we combine ensemble forecasting of mangrove distribution for the next century with high\u2010resolution oceanographic dispersal simulations, phenological observations, and historical hurricane data to project future mangrove\u2010salt marsh dynamics at the rapidly changing range limit in northeastern Florida (USA). We show that warming winter temperatures will drive continued poleward expansion of mangroves along North America's Atlantic coast, potentially reaching South Carolina by 2100. With ongoing climate change, suitable mangrove habitat is projected to expand beyond the current range limit, and dispersal simulations suggest successful colonization of these sites from established mangrove populations. Additionally, patterns in hurricane directionality and intensity and field reports of propagule presence reveal that these high\u2010energy events may significantly contribute to future mangrove range expansion by facilitating long\u2010distance, storm\u2010driven propagule dispersal. The encroachment of mangroves in salt marsh\u2010dominated latitudes is expected to substantially modify wetland ecosystem function and structure, emphasizing how the identification of newly colonizable habitat can inform conservation strategies and site\u2010specific decisions on mangrove management.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.70676","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]],"date-time":"2026-01-07T10:01:12Z","timestamp":1767780072000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["21st\u2010Century Mangrove Expansion Along the Southeastern United States"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"32","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-3087-910X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lucia I. A.","family":"Enes Gramoso","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, bDIV: Ecology, Evolution &amp; Genetics Vrije Universiteit Brussel  Brussels Belgium"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dustin","family":"Carroll","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Moss Landing Marine Laboratories San Jos\u00e9 State University  Moss Landing California USA"},{"name":"Earth Science Section, Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology  Pasadena California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3313-0878","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kyle C.","family":"Cavanaugh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography University of California  Los Angeles California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Remi","family":"Bardou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Global Change Biology University of Michigan  Ann Arbor Michigan USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael J.","family":"Osland","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"U.S. Geological Survey  Lafayette Louisiana USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tom","family":"Van der Stocken","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, bDIV: Ecology, Evolution &amp; Genetics Vrije Universiteit Brussel  Brussels Belgium"},{"name":"Earth Science Section, Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology  Pasadena California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s12237\u2010011\u20109404\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2006.09.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365\u20102699.2006.01584.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.13813"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/meps09364"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/10\u20101510.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.14985"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s12237\u2010023\u201001209\u20107"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.13990"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365\u20102664.13169"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2011.09.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.07288"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1902181116"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1315800111"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1206432"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365\u20102435.12443"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.2270"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecy.1979"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/141087"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600\u20100587.2012.07348.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s12237\u2010015\u20109993\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2997695"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","unstructured":"Florida Department of Environmental Protection.2022.Data from \u201cStatewide Land Use Land Cover.\u201dhttps:\/\/geodata.dep.state.fl.us\/datasets\/FDEP::statewide\u2010land\u2010use\u2010land\u2010cover\/about."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","first-page":"1211","volume-title":"Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. 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