{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,3]],"date-time":"2026-10-03T05:53:02Z","timestamp":1791006782725,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":72,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,10]],"date-time":"2026-08-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1786320000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":9,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,1]],"date-time":"2026-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785542400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Climate change is dramatically affecting species distribution and phenology worldwide. Its impact on arthropod vectors, such as the\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">\n                      <jats:italic>Aedes albopictus<\/jats:italic>\n                    <\/jats:styled-content>\n                    mosquito, has important consequences for biting nuisance and arbovirus transmission risk. Here, we assess the impact of climate change on the presence and abundance of\n                    <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic>\n                    , as well as the risk of dengue transmission over France during the 21st century. We use a mechanistic model that we adjusted against records of recent autochthonous cases of dengue in France. We simulate climatic suitability indicators for mosquito establishment, the duration of the epidemic risk and secondary cases of dengue under different climatic and demographic scenarios at different periods up to 2085. Future simulations are based on a high\u2010pressure scenario (high greenhouse gas emissions, high demographic growth) and a median\u2010pressure scenario (median greenhouse gas emissions, demographic stagnation). To account for climate model uncertainty, we repeat the simulations for three different regional climate models. By 2085, in the high\u2010pressure scenario, most of France (89%\u201396%) will be climatically suitable for the establishment of\n                    <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic>\n                    , except for mountain ranges. Similarly, autochthonous transmission of dengue will be theoretically possible in all colonized areas except over northern lowlands (71%\u201395%). In the median pressure scenario, both climatic suitability for establishment (49%\u201389%) and autochthonous dengue transmission risk (31%\u201382%) exhibit large variation. Low population density areas show moderate suitability for vector establishment but exhibit the highest potential for dengue transmission. Overwintering mechanisms, such as egg diapause, indispensable for survival in temperate climates, may not be necessary along the Mediterranean and Basque coasts, allowing activity of the vector all year\u2010round in the future.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.71017","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,10]],"date-time":"2026-08-10T08:01:49Z","timestamp":1786348909000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["<scp>\n                      <i>Aedes albopictus<\/i>\n                    <\/scp>\n                    and Dengue Transmission Risk in France Over the 21st Century"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"32","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5852-0015","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrea","family":"Radici","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"MIVEGEC (Universit\u00e9 de Montpellier, IRD, CNRS)  Montpellier France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7490-6257","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pachka","family":"Hammami","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ASTRE (CIRAD, INRAE, Universit\u00e9 de Montpellier)  Montferrier\u2010sur\u2010Lez France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0220-8131","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Florence","family":"Fournet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MIVEGEC (Universit\u00e9 de Montpellier, IRD, CNRS)  Montpellier France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0544-3885","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Didier","family":"Fontenille","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MIVEGEC (Universit\u00e9 de Montpellier, IRD, CNRS)  Montpellier France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3846-7082","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cyril","family":"Caminade","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ICTP  Trieste Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1101\/2025.07.01.662530"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bartholom\u00e9e C. 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