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Anthropogenic climate change is already intensifying fire\u2010prone weather and increasing wildfire risk across Europe with risk expected to grow sharply in coming decades. Past experience suggests that human action, such as fuel management and improved fire suppression capacity, can reduce wildfire spread and intensity. However, whether current or future efforts can counter rising risks under continued climate change remains uncertain. In this study, we assess the role of socio\u2010economic factors and biophysical factors in shaping future fire regimes across Europe. Using two fire models (SPITFIRE and BASE) coupled with the fire\u2010enabled Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJmL, we simulate future burned area under two socio\u2010economic and greenhouse gas concentration pathways (SSP1\u20102.6 and SSP3\u20107.0). We also run experiments where socio\u2010economic factors are held constant to isolate their influence. Our findings show that both biophysical and socio\u2010economic factors strongly affect future wildfire activity. Fire weather and fire management capacity are important drivers, while population density, vegetation shifts and land use matter more at regional scales. By the end of the century, intensified fire weather alone could increase annual burned area by approximately +39% under a low emission scenario (SSP1\u20102.6) and by nearly +192% under a high emission scenario (SSP3\u20107.0). Continued improvements in fire management capacity could substantially moderate these increases, reducing burned area by 72%\u201392% compared to scenarios without these improvements. However, under strong climate change, fire activity still rises in about 55% of Europe's fire prone regions, even if investments in fire management capacity continue at current levels. Overall, improved wildfire management capacity has the potential to greatly limit impacts of worsening fire weather, but may not fully offset strong climate change impacts.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.71043","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,20]],"date-time":"2026-08-20T08:01:16Z","timestamp":1787212876000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Future Projections of Burned Area in Europe Highlight the Importance of Human Action"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"32","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7315-7007","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maik","family":"Billing","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association  Potsdam Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1858-3489","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matthew","family":"Forrest","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK\u2010F)  Frankfurt am Main Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0041-0937","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Simon P. 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