{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,26]],"date-time":"2026-09-26T06:58:28Z","timestamp":1790405908026,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":67,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,16]],"date-time":"2026-09-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1789516800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":15,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]],"date-time":"2026-09-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788220800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001691","name":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["JPJSCCA20210006"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JPJSCCA20210006"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001691","name":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["23K26924"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["23K26924"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Kelp forests underpin entire ecosystems and provide key services for human society, yet are threatened by anthropogenic stressors, most notably ocean warming and overgrazing. While Japanese kelp forests have substantial historical and cultural value, responses to recent environmental change remain poorly resolved. Here, we assessed how recent Kuroshio\u2010associated warming and increased herbivory were linked to kelp forest collapse across approximately 200\u2009km of the Izu Peninsula (central\u2010eastern Japan). We combined 40\u2009years of in\u00a0situ kelp biomass (1980\u20132024) and 12\u201314\u2009years of canopy\u2010cover records (2009\u20132025) with satellite\u2010derived sea\u2010surface temperature and marine heatwave metrics. Herbivorous fish assemblages and bite rates were surveyed monthly (2021\u20132022) across reefs spanning healthy, mosaic, and barren states. Laboratory experiments quantified lethal and sub\u2010lethal thermal thresholds of juvenile\n                    <jats:italic>Ecklonia cava<\/jats:italic>\n                    using temperature\u2010ramping (20\u00b0C\u201333\u00b0C) and growth trials (22\u00b0C vs. 28\u00b0C). Spatial analyses compared thermal\u2010threshold exceedance and seasonal grazing\u2010window expansion with observed canopy loss, evaluating whether warming and herbivory were consistent with the spatial extent of decline. Warming along the Izu coast intensified during the recent Kuroshio Large Meander, increasing from 0.15\u00b0C decade\u22121 (1982\u20132016) to 2.98\u00b0C decade\n                    <jats:sup>\u22121<\/jats:sup>\n                    (2017\u20132024), with cumulative marine heatwave intensity rising from 2.34\u00b0C to 63.22\u00b0C\u00b7day decade\n                    <jats:sup>\u22121<\/jats:sup>\n                    . Over the same period, canopy\u2010forming\n                    <jats:italic>E. cava<\/jats:italic>\n                    cover fell from ~75% to zero, and peak biomass declined from 2.37\u2009kg\u2009\n                    <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">DW<\/jats:styled-content>\n                    \u2009m\n                    <jats:sup>\n                      \u2212\n                      <jats:bold>2<\/jats:bold>\n                    <\/jats:sup>\n                    to zero, indicating local extirpation and likely regional functional loss. Laboratory assays showed rapid physiological decline above 29.5\u00b0C and mortality at 32\u00b0C\u201333\u00b0C; temperatures exceeded during summer 2023\/2024. The grazing season by warm\u2010adapted herbivorous fishes expanded by up to 86\u2009days, amplifying kelp loss across heat\u2010stressed reefs. Together, extreme thermal stress and expanded herbivory were strongly associated with a shift from kelp forests to barren reefs, highlighting how physiological stress and trophic processes can contribute to rapid kelp loss in warming boundary\u2010current systems.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.71106","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]],"date-time":"2026-09-17T05:40:28Z","timestamp":1789623628000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Unprecedented Warming and Increased Herbivory Drive Collapse of Japan's Kelp Forests"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"32","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4971-1634","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ben P.","family":"Harvey","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Shimoda Marine Research Center University of Tsukuba  Shimoda Japan"},{"name":"Labex ICONA International CO2 Natural Analogues Network  Shimoda Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hiroki","family":"Takenaka","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shimoda Marine Research Center University of Tsukuba  Shimoda Japan"},{"name":"Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute The University of Tokyo  Chiba Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mariko","family":"Shiel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Biological and Marine Sciences University of Plymouth  Plymouth UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8275-5006","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joshua M.","family":"Heitzman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shimoda Marine Research Center University of Tsukuba  Shimoda Japan"},{"name":"Labex ICONA International CO2 Natural Analogues Network  Shimoda Japan"},{"name":"Seto Inland Sea Carbon\u2010Neutral Research Center Hiroshima University  Higashi\u2010Hiroshima Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9868-4409","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Guinther","family":"Mitushasi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shimoda Marine Research Center University of Tsukuba  Shimoda Japan"},{"name":"Labex ICONA International CO2 Natural Analogues Network  Shimoda Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9652-0155","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Layla","family":"Iijima","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shimoda Marine Research Center University of Tsukuba  Shimoda Japan"},{"name":"Labex ICONA International CO2 Natural Analogues Network  Shimoda Japan"},{"name":"Entropie, IRD, IFREMER, Universit\u00e9 de La R\u00e9union, Universit\u00e9 de la Nouvelle\u2010Cal\u00e9donie  Noum\u00e9a New Caledonia"},{"name":"Universit\u00e9 Brest CNRS, IRD, Ifremer, LEMAR  Plouzan\u00e9 France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6893-7498","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shigeki","family":"Wada","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shimoda Marine Research Center University of Tsukuba  Shimoda Japan"},{"name":"Labex ICONA International CO2 Natural Analogues Network  Shimoda Japan"},{"name":"Seto Inland Sea Carbon\u2010Neutral Research Center Hiroshima University  Higashi\u2010Hiroshima Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Takeo","family":"Hama","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Life and Environmental Sciences University of Tsukuba  Tsukuba Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0907-544X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nathan G.","family":"King","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom The Laboratory  Plymouth UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4157-541X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dan A.","family":"Smale","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom The Laboratory  Plymouth UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9040-9296","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sylvain","family":"Agostini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shimoda Marine Research Center University of Tsukuba  Shimoda Japan"},{"name":"Labex ICONA International CO2 Natural Analogues Network  Shimoda Japan"},{"name":"Entropie, IRD, IFREMER, Universit\u00e9 de La R\u00e9union, Universit\u00e9 de la Nouvelle\u2010Cal\u00e9donie  Noum\u00e9a New Caledonia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.15749"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00317343"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmars.2022.817021"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms10280"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/meps12677"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.138501"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00227-001-0715-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/d16050253"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2656.1999.00337.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/meps07526"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-023-37385-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/brv.12850"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/meps10573"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biosci\/bix147"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-70273-x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-018-0383-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","first-page":"39","article-title":"Global Ecology of the Giant Kelp Macrocystis: From Ecotypes to Ecosystems","volume":"45","author":"Graham M. H.","year":"2007","journal-title":"Oceanography and Marine Biology: An Annual Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","first-page":"109","article-title":"Isoyake Studies in Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan","volume":"32","author":"Hasegawa M.","year":"2010","journal-title":"Bulletin of Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.marpolbul.2022.113954"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10872-025-00753-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pocean.2015.12.014"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/conl.13130"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_24_1","unstructured":"Japan Meteorological Agency.2025.7\u5e749\u304b\u6708\u7d9a\u3044\u305f\u9ed2\u6f6e\u5927\u86c7\u884c\u304c\u7d42\u606f\u3059\u308b\u5146\u3057[Press Release].https:\/\/www.jma.go.jp\/jma\/press\/2505\/09a\/press_kuroshio_path.html."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2020.108815"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1606102113"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1716826115"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/lno.11138"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_29_1","first-page":"44","volume-title":"Kelp Restoration Guidebook: Lessons Learned From Kelp Projects Around the World","author":"Layton C.","year":"2022"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41559-020-1198-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2013.0269"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmars.2024.1323448"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0081107"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/meps12530"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-018-03732-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.abn2465"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1958"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/12-0389.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nmeth.2089"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_11_40_1","first-page":"9","article-title":"Comparison in Biomass, Density and Age Composition of Ecklonia Cava Populations in Two Localities With Different Temperature Conditions","volume":"49","author":"Serisawa Y.","year":"2001","journal-title":"Suisanzoshoku"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1440-1835.2001.00214.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.70307"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/nph.16107"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.774"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.70042"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2012.2829"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-019-0412-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-marine-032122-121437"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0376892902000322"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fbuil.2021.788700"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1440-1703.12053"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10872-024-00741-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0026986"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmars.2021.721087"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.391"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/pre.12395"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1610725113"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-24666-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2014.0846"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/23328940.2020.1765950"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aad8745"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-805052-1.00003-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-marine-042023-093037"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2664.70448"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02488318"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_66_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2745.13621"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_67_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2019.2046"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_68_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2023.10.006"}],"container-title":["Global Change Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/gcb.71106","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/gcb.71106","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/gcb.71106","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,26]],"date-time":"2026-09-26T06:04:28Z","timestamp":1790402668000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/gcb.71106"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]},"references-count":67,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/gcb.71106"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.71106","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1354-1013","1365-2486"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1354-1013","type":"print"},{"value":"1365-2486","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2026-02-19","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-08-26","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-09-16","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e71106"}}