{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,2]],"date-time":"2026-02-02T21:23:30Z","timestamp":1770067410589,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,19]],"date-time":"2014-06-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1403136000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Hepatology Research"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Aim<\/jats:title><jats:p>A considerable proportion of chronic hepatitis <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">B<\/jats:styled-content> (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CHB<\/jats:styled-content>) or hepatitis <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">B<\/jats:styled-content> virus (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">HBV<\/jats:styled-content>)\u2010related cirrhotic patients develop acute\u2010on\u2010chronic liver failure (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ACLF<\/jats:styled-content>) with high short\u2010term mortality. It remains difficult to accurately predict short\u2010term prognosis in <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ACLF<\/jats:styled-content> patients. The aim of the study is to develop a new prognostic model by assessing new objective variables.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>A total of 432 <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">HBV\u2010ACLF<\/jats:styled-content> patients were recruited into a retrospective observational cohort study including one training and validation cohort. <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">C<\/jats:styled-content>ox proportional hazard analysis was performed in the training cohort to develop the prognostic model. The performance of the new model was tested in the validation cohort by a receiver\u2013operator curve (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ROC<\/jats:styled-content>).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>During follow up, 241 deaths were reported, with a high 3\u2010month mortality of 48.4%. On multivariate analysis, age, hepatic encephalopathy (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">HE<\/jats:styled-content>) and <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">M<\/jats:styled-content>odel for <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">E<\/jats:styled-content>nd\u2010<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">S<\/jats:styled-content>tage <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">L<\/jats:styled-content>iver <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">D<\/jats:styled-content>isease (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">MELD<\/jats:styled-content>) score were found to be significantly associated with 3\u2010month mortality. The integrated <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">MELD<\/jats:styled-content> (i<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">MELD<\/jats:styled-content>) model had a higher area under the <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ROC<\/jats:styled-content> than the original <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">MELD<\/jats:styled-content>, <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">S<\/jats:styled-content>equential <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">O<\/jats:styled-content>rgan <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">F<\/jats:styled-content>ailure <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">A<\/jats:styled-content>ssessment (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">SOFA<\/jats:styled-content>), <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">C<\/jats:styled-content>hronic <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">L<\/jats:styled-content>iver <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">F<\/jats:styled-content>ailure\u2013<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">SOFA<\/jats:styled-content> and <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">C<\/jats:styled-content>hild\u2013<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">T<\/jats:styled-content>urcotte\u2013<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">P<\/jats:styled-content>ugh score (0.853 vs 0.743 vs 0.726 vs 0.764 vs 0.592) in predicting 3\u2010month mortality. In the validation sample of 212 patients, i<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">MELD<\/jats:styled-content> remained better than the other models.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p><jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">HBV\u2010ACLF<\/jats:styled-content> patients are characterized by high short\u2010term mortality, but steady long\u2010term survival. A modified <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">MELD<\/jats:styled-content> model by incorporating age and <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">HE<\/jats:styled-content> score has better predictive value of 3\u2010month mortality than other conventional models.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/hepr.12362","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,5,22]],"date-time":"2014-05-22T09:05:33Z","timestamp":1400749533000},"page":"405-414","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["A novel integrated <scp>M<\/scp>odel for <scp>E<\/scp>nd\u2010<scp>S<\/scp>tage <scp>L<\/scp>iver <scp>D<\/scp>isease model predicts short\u2010term prognosis of hepatitis <scp>B<\/scp> virus\u2010related acute\u2010on\u2010chronic liver failure patients"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"45","author":[{"given":"Huadong","family":"Yan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Diseases Ningbo No. 2 Hospital  Ningbo 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