{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]],"date-time":"2026-09-17T19:16:15Z","timestamp":1789672575668,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,28]],"date-time":"2026-03-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1774656000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,28]],"date-time":"2026-03-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1774656000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Hepatology Research"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aim<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections remain major causes of liver\u2010related morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although Japan has implemented nationwide screening and treatment programs for decades, updated nationwide estimates and long\u2010term projections are limited. We aimed to estimate the number of carriers and patients in Japan in 2020 and to project through 2050.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The carriers were classified into six categories: undiagnosed carriers, patients in care, diagnosed but not linked to care, new infections, cured, and deceased. Multiple nationwide data sources\u2014including the National Database of Health Insurance Claims (NDB), public statistics, clinical information, and large\u2010scale blood donor screening data\u2014were integrated to estimate the size of each category. The Markov model incorporating treatment status and liver disease progression was used to simulate annual changes from 2021 to 2050.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In 2020, the total estimated number of carriers and patients was 1,104,406\u20131,424,420 (532,159\u2013618,684, aged \u2264\u00a069\u00a0years), including HBV: 923,893\u2013940,647 (454,167\u2013461,408, \u2264 69\u00a0years) and HCV: 180,513\u2013483,773 (77,992\u2013157,276, \u2264\u00a069\u00a0years). Diagnosis and treatment rates exceeded WHO 2030 targets for HBV (95% and 83%\u201384%; 94% and 99%\u2013100%, \u2264\u00a069\u00a0years) and approached targets for HCV (82%\u201393% and 78%\u2013100%; 75%\u201388% and 98%\u2013100%, \u2264 69\u00a0years). Under current conditions, HCV infections are projected to decline to &lt; 20,000 by 2050, whereas HBV will decrease more gradually to 200,000.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The chronic HBV and HCV burden in Japan declined markedly, particularly for HCV, reflecting progress in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment and offering a model for hepatitis elimination.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/hepr.70174","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,28]],"date-time":"2026-03-28T16:07:01Z","timestamp":1774714021000},"page":"1213-1224","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Updated Burden and Long\u2010Term Projections of Chronic Hepatitis B and C in Japan: A Nationwide Markov Modeling Study"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"56","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5669-4051","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Junko","family":"Tanaka","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Hiroshima University  Hiroshima Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Akemi","family":"Kurisu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Prevention, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences Hiroshima University  Hiroshima Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6961-2000","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ko","family":"Ko","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Prevention, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences Hiroshima University  Hiroshima 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