{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,4]],"date-time":"2026-11-04T09:11:14Z","timestamp":1793783474023,"version":"4.6.1"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,6]],"date-time":"2018-05-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1525564800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004423","name":"World Health Organization","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004423","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000805","name":"European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ECDC\/2016\/041"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ECDC\/2016\/041"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000805","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Influenza Resp Viruses"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>In temperate zones, all\u2010cause mortality exhibits a marked seasonality, and influenza represents a major cause of winter excess mortality. We present a statistical model, Flu<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">MOMO<\/jats:styled-content>, which estimate influenza\u2010associated mortality from all\u2010cause mortality data and apply it to Danish data from 2010\/11 to 2016\/17.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We applied a multivariable time series model with all\u2010cause mortality as outcome, influenza activity and extreme temperatures as explanatory variables while adjusting for time trend and seasonality. Three indicators of weekly influenza activity (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">IA<\/jats:styled-content>) were explored: percentage of consultations for influenza\u2010like illness (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ILI<\/jats:styled-content>) at primary health care, national percentage of influenza\u2010positive samples, and the product of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ILI<\/jats:styled-content> percentage and percentage of influenza\u2010positive specimens in a given week, that is, the Goldstein index.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Independent of the choice of parameter to represent influenza activity, the estimated influenza\u2010associated mortality showed similar patterns with the Goldstein index being the most conservative. Over the 7 winter seasons, the median influenza\u2010associated mortality per 100\u00a0000 population was 17.6 (range: 0.0\u201036.8), 14.1 (0.3\u201031.6) and 8.3 (0.0\u201025.0) for the 3 indicators, respectively, for all ages.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>The Flu<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">MOMO<\/jats:styled-content> model fitted the Danish data well and has the potential to estimate all\u2010cause influenza\u2010associated mortality in near real time and could be used as a standardised method in other countries. We recommend using the Goldstein index as the influenza activity indicator in the Flu<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">MOMO<\/jats:styled-content> model. Further work is needed to improve the interpretation of the estimated effects.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.12564","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,4,16]],"date-time":"2018-04-16T23:34:46Z","timestamp":1523921686000},"page":"591-604","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":58,"title":["Influenza\u2010associated mortality determined from all\u2010cause mortality, Denmark 2010\/11\u20102016\/17: The FluMOMO model"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6477-2219","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jens","family":"Nielsen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention Statens Serum Institut  Copenhagen S Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tyra Grove","family":"Krause","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention Statens Serum Institut  Copenhagen S Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"K\u00e5re","family":"M\u00f8lbak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention Statens Serum Institut  Copenhagen S Denmark"},{"name":"Department of Veterinary and Animal Science Faculty of Health and Medical Science, University of Copenhagen  Copenhagen Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socscimed.2010.07.024"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/4591848"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1750-2659.2009.00073.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","unstructured":"European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO).http:\/\/www.euromomo.eu. 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