{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]],"date-time":"2026-01-08T00:37:27Z","timestamp":1767832647394,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,5]],"date-time":"2019-06-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1559692800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100012095","name":"Scottish Government","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100012095","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Influenza Resp Viruses"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>For the last 17\u00a0years, the<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">UK<\/jats:styled-content>has employed a routine influenza vaccination programme with the aim of reducing the spread of seasonal influenza. In mid\u20102000, the programme moved from a purely risk\u2010based approach to a risk and age group\u2010targeted approach with all those aged 65+\u00a0years being included. To date, there has been no assessment of the population effectiveness of this age\u2010targeted policy in Scotland.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title><jats:p>Statistical modelling techniques were used to determine what impact the routine vaccination of those aged 65+\u00a0years has had on influenza\u2010related morbidity and mortality in Scotland.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Two Poisson regression models were developed using weekly counts of all\u2010cause mortality, cause\u2010specific mortality and emergency hospitalisations for the period 1981\u20102012, one using week\u2010in\u2010year and the other using temperature to capture the seasonal variability in mortality\/hospitalisations. These models were used to determine the number of excess deaths\/hospitalisations associated with the introduction of the local risk and age\u2010based vaccination programme in 2000.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Routinely vaccinating those aged 65+\u00a0years is associated with a reduction in excess all\u2010cause mortality, cardiovascular and<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">COPD<\/jats:styled-content>\u2010related mortality and<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">COPD<\/jats:styled-content>\u2010related hospitalisations. Our analysis suggests that using the week\u2010in\u2010year model, on average, 732 (95%<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CI<\/jats:styled-content>66\u20101398) deaths from all causes, 248 (95%<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CI<\/jats:styled-content>10\u2010486) cardiovascular\u2010related deaths, 123 (95%<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CI<\/jats:styled-content>28\u2010218)<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">COPD<\/jats:styled-content>\u2010related deaths and 425 (95%<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CI<\/jats:styled-content>258\u2010592)<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">COPD<\/jats:styled-content>\u2010related hospitalisations have been prevented each flu season among the those aged 65+. Similar results were found using the temperature model. There was no evidence to suggest that the change in policy was associated with reductions in influenza\/pneumonia\u2010related mortality or influenza\/cardiovascular\u2010related hospitalisations.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>Routinely vaccinating those aged 65+\u00a0years appears to have reduced influenza\u2010related morbidity and mortality in Scotland. With the childhood vaccination programme well underway, these data provide an importance benchmark which can be used to accurately assess the impact of this new seasonal influenza vaccination programme.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.12583","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,6,16]],"date-time":"2018-06-16T15:39:00Z","timestamp":1529163540000},"page":"354-363","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Modelling the population effectiveness of the national seasonal influenza vaccination programme in Scotland: The impact of targeting all individuals aged 65\u00a0years and over"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4394-551X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stephen","family":"Corson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Strathclyde Glasgow UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Chris","family":"Robertson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Strathclyde Glasgow UK"},{"name":"Health Protection Scotland Glasgow UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Arlene","family":"Reynolds","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Protection Scotland Glasgow UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jim","family":"McMenamin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Protection Scotland Glasgow UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","unstructured":"DH Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Team.UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011.London:Department of Health;2011."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","unstructured":"Public Health England.Immunisation against infectious disease: the green book.https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/collections\/immunisation-against-infectious-disease-the-green-book2013. 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