{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,30]],"date-time":"2026-10-30T21:09:55Z","timestamp":1793394595970,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,10]],"date-time":"2023-12-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1702166400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":9,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["221003\/Z\/20\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["221003\/Z\/20\/Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100020171","name":"Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100020171","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Influenza Resp Viruses"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce the spread of SARS\u2010CoV\u20102. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates reduced circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020\u20132021 seasons. Here, we use a mechanistic transmission model to project the rebound of RSV in the two subsequent seasons.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We fit an age\u2010structured epidemiological model to hospitalization data from national RSV surveillance in South Africa, allowing for time\u2010varying reduction in RSV transmission during periods of COVID\u201019 circulation. We apply the model to project the rebound of RSV in the 2022 and 2023 seasons.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We projected an early and intense outbreak of RSV in April 2022, with an age shift to older infants (6\u201323\u2009months old) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. In March 2022, government alerts were issued to prepare the hospital system for this potentially intense outbreak. We then assess the 2022 predictions and project the 2023 season. Model predictions for 2023 indicate that RSV activity has not fully returned to normal, with a projected early and moderately intense wave. We estimate that NPIs reduced RSV transmission between 15% and 50% during periods of COVID\u201019 circulation.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A wide range of NPIs impacted the dynamics of the RSV outbreaks throughout 2020\u20132023 in regard to timing, magnitude, and age structure, with important implications in a low\u2010 and middle\u2010income countries (LMICs) setting where RSV interventions remain limited. More efforts should focus on adapting RSV models to LMIC data to project the impact of upcoming medical interventions for this disease.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.13229","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,10]],"date-time":"2023-12-10T22:09:28Z","timestamp":1702246168000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Modeling the impact of COVID\u201019 nonpharmaceutical interventions on respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-9298-945X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Samantha J.","family":"Bents","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health  Bethesda Maryland USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C\u00e9cile","family":"Viboud","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health  Bethesda Maryland USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bryan T.","family":"Grenfell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University  Princeton New Jersey USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alexandra B.","family":"Hogan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Population Health University of New South Wales  Sydney New South Wales Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4395-347X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stefano","family":"Tempia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service  Johannesburg South Africa"},{"name":"School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences University of Witwatersrand  Johannesburg South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anne","family":"von Gottberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service  Johannesburg South Africa"},{"name":"School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences University of Witwatersrand  Johannesburg South Africa"},{"name":"Department of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences University of Cape Town  Cape Town South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jocelyn","family":"Moyes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service  Johannesburg South Africa"},{"name":"School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences University of Witwatersrand  Johannesburg South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7588-2480","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sibongile","family":"Walaza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service  Johannesburg South Africa"},{"name":"School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences University of Witwatersrand  Johannesburg South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chelsea","family":"Hansen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health  Bethesda Maryland USA"},{"name":"Brotman Baty Institute University of Washington  Seattle Washington USA"},{"name":"PandemiX Center, Department of Science &amp; Environment Roskilde University  Roskilde Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0376-2302","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cheryl","family":"Cohen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service  Johannesburg South Africa"},{"name":"School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences University of Witwatersrand  Johannesburg South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rachel E.","family":"Baker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health Brown University  Providence Rhode Island 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