{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,12]],"date-time":"2026-08-12T14:35:45Z","timestamp":1786545345059,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,15]],"date-time":"2026-07-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1784073600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":14,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,1]],"date-time":"2026-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1782864000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000925","name":"National Health and Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["APP1194109"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["APP1194109"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000925","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Influenza Resp Viruses"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) is a widely used threshold\u2010based approach for identifying the start of an influenza season but has rarely been used with emergency department (ED) syndromic surveillance (EDSyS). This retrospective study aimed to evaluate MEM applied to rates of ED presentation for conditions compatible with influenza to calculate thresholds for identifying the start of the influenza season (pre\u2010epidemic thresholds) in New South Wales, Australia, 2012 through 2019.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>MEM was tested on weekly rates of ED presentations for three Syndromic Groups based on combinations of four diagnostic syndromes related to influenza, to calculate pre\u2010epidemic thresholds (epidemic start threshold) for the years 2012\u20132019. Validation included comparing the start of a season using pre\u2010epidemic thresholds with the start of the season based on percent positive influenza notifications from sentinel laboratories (identification difference).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The most accurate model for identifying the start of the influenza season combined all four diagnostic syndromes, consisting of influenza like illness, unspecified viral illness, pneumonia and lower respiratory tract infections. Pre\u2010epidemic thresholds based on MEM were able to identify the influenza season from between 2\u2009weeks before to 1\u2009week after the start, with a mean of 0.6\u2009weeks before the start of a season and a mean absolute identification difference of 1.1\u2009weeks.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study demonstrates the utility of MEM with EDSyS for identifying the start of influenza seasons, providing a visual alert for optimal timing of public health preparedness and response.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.70293","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,16]],"date-time":"2026-07-16T01:51:37Z","timestamp":1784166697000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance to identify the Start of Influenza Seasons in New South Wales, Australia"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7384-9967","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nectarios","family":"Rose","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of New South Wales  Sydney Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9287-8755","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Adam T.","family":"Craig","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The University of Queensland  Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2391-4396","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"David J.","family":"Muscatello","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of New South Wales  Sydney Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2196\/62641"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","unstructured":"NSW Health \u201cInfluenza Surveillance Report \u201d (2020) https:\/\/www.health.nsw.gov.au\/Infectious\/Influenza\/Pages\/reports.aspx."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","unstructured":"NSW Health \u201cNSW Respiratory Surveillance Reports \u2010 COVID\u201019 and Influenza \u201d (2026) https:\/\/www.health.nsw.gov.au\/Infectious\/covid\u201019\/Pages\/reports.aspx."},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","first-page":"347","article-title":"A Brief Overview of Influenza Surveillance Systems in Australia, 2015","volume":"40","author":"Sullivan S. 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