{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,7]],"date-time":"2023-11-07T22:01:39Z","timestamp":1699394499726},"reference-count":11,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2006,11,27]],"date-time":"2006-11-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1164585600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Evaluation Clinical Practice"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p><jats:bold>Objective\u2002<\/jats:bold> The aim of this study was to establish a predictive model for Down\u2019s syndrome using maternal age as well as maternal serum levels of alpha\u2010fetoprotein (AFP) and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), and to identify an optimal cut\u2010off risk in women under the age of 35\u2003years to improve sensitivity.<\/jats:p><jats:p><jats:bold>Methods\u2002<\/jats:bold> Logistic regression models were utilized to predict fetal Down\u2019s syndrome as a function of maternal age and logarithm of levels of AFP as well as hCG using training data of 20 pregnancies with fetal Down\u2019s syndrome and 9730 unaffected pregnancies. Validation was performed using data of another nine affected pregnancies and 3496 unaffected pregnancies. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted.<\/jats:p><jats:p><jats:bold>Results\u2002<\/jats:bold> Based on the newly established logistic regression equations, the optimal cut\u2010off risk from the ROC curve analysis was at 1:499, with a 17.8% false\u2010positive rate and a 90.0% sensitivity. A suboptimal cut\u2010off risk was estimated at 1:332, with a 12.0% false\u2010positive rate and an 80% sensitivity.<\/jats:p><jats:p><jats:bold>Conclusion\u2002<\/jats:bold> A predictive model for Down\u2019s syndrome was developed using logistic regression. By ROC curve analysis and clinical consideration, the cut\u2010off risk for young pregnant women could be determined.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2753.2006.00687.x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2006,11,27]],"date-time":"2006-11-27T10:07:19Z","timestamp":1164622039000},"page":"254-258","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Risk prediction for Down\u2019s syndrome in young pregnant women using maternal serum biomarkers: determination of cut\u2010off risk from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Hsiao\u2010Lin","family":"Hwa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tsang\u2010Ming","family":"Ko","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fon\u2010Jou","family":"Hsieh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ming\u2010Fang","family":"Yen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kai\u2010Pei","family":"Chou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tony Hsiu\u2010Hsi","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2006,12,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_5_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/pd.1970110204"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/096914139700400402"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0223(199707)17:7<615::AID-PD130>3.0.CO;2-S"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/096914139600300105"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0223(199708)17:8<707::AID-PD142>3.0.CO;2-H"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1471-0528.1987.tb03115.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0223(199612)16:12<1115::AID-PD3>3.0.CO;2-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0223(199608)16:8<691::AID-PD946>3.0.CO;2-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1148\/radiology.143.1.7063747"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_11_2","first-page":"939","volume-title":"Williams Obstetrics","author":"Cunningham F. 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