{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T01:30:45Z","timestamp":1791250245538,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":18,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2007,3,13]],"date-time":"2007-03-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1173744000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":40,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>We describe a risk\u2010based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long\u2010run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle\u2010vehicle and vehicle\u2010pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2006.00864.x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,3,14]],"date-time":"2007-03-14T01:13:46Z","timestamp":1173834826000},"page":"125-136","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":66,"title":["A Risk\u2010Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"27","author":[{"given":"Kavi","family":"Bhalla","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Majid","family":"Ezzati","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ajay","family":"Mahal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joshua","family":"Salomon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"Reich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2007,3,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_2","volume-title":"World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention","author":"World Health Organization (WHO)","year":"2004"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_2","volume-title":"The Global Burden of Disease: A Comprehensive Assessment of Mortality and Disability from Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors in 1990 and Projected to 2020","author":"Murray C. 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Report of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_2","first-page":"42","volume-title":"Urban Transport for Growing Cities: High Capacity Bus Systems","author":"Mohan D."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0001-4575(97)00082-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hec.1020"}],"container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1111%2Fj.1539-6924.2006.00864.x","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2006.00864.x","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,12]],"date-time":"2023-10-12T17:01:12Z","timestamp":1697130072000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2006.00864.x"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2007,2]]},"references-count":18,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,2]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2006.00864.x"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2006.00864.x","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0272-4332","1539-6924"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0272-4332","type":"print"},{"value":"1539-6924","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2007,2]]}}}