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We suggest the need for a complementary and different conceptual approach to achieve eradication compared to the current case\u2010based approach using surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) to identify symptomatic poliovirus infections. Specifically, we describe a modeling approach to characterize overall population immunity to poliovirus transmission. The approach deals with the realities that exposure to live polioviruses (e.g., WPV, OPV) and\/or vaccination with inactivated poliovirus vaccine provides protection from paralytic polio (i.e., disease), but does not eliminate the potential for reinfection or asymptomatic participation in poliovirus transmission, which may increase with time because of waning immunity. The AFP surveillance system provides evidence of symptomatic poliovirus infections detected, which indicate immunity gaps after outbreaks occur, and this system represents an appropriate focus for controlling disease outbreaks. We describe a conceptual dynamic model to characterize population immunity to poliovirus transmission that helps identify risks created by immunity gaps before outbreaks occur, which provides an opportunity for national and global policymakers to manage the risk of poliovirus and prevent outbreaks before they occur. We suggest that dynamically modeling risk represents an essential tool as the number of cases approaches zero.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2012.01891.x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,9,17]],"date-time":"2012-09-17T19:39:09Z","timestamp":1347910749000},"page":"647-663","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":64,"title":["Modeling Population Immunity to Support Efforts to End the Transmission of Live Polioviruses"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"33","author":[{"given":"Kimberly M.","family":"Thompson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Kid Risk, Inc. 10524 Moss Park Rd., Ste. 204\u2010364 Orlando FL 32832 USA"},{"name":"University of Central Florida College of Medicine"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mark A.","family":"Pallansch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases Division of Viral Diseases Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Radboud J. 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