{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T09:03:28Z","timestamp":1791277408587,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2012,10,18]],"date-time":"2012-10-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1350518400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2013,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>In foot\u2010and\u2010mouth disease (FMD) free countries, the occurrence of an FMD outbreak is a rare event with potentially large economic losses. We explore the dynamic effects of an FMD outbreak on market variables and economic surplus taking into account the largely neglected issue of farm bankruptcy. Simulations are performed on a stylized agricultural economy, which is a net exporter before the outbreak. We find complex dynamic market effects when the farm credit market suffers from information imperfections leading to farm closure. Welfare effects are also dramatically altered. Domestic consumers may lose in the long run from an FMD outbreak because domestic supply contracts. On the other hand, farmers able to resist this event may ultimately gain. Our analysis also shows that these effects are not monotone, making any efficient policy response to this catastrophic event quite challenging.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2012.01902.x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,10,19]],"date-time":"2012-10-19T00:28:30Z","timestamp":1350606510000},"page":"480-492","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot\u2010and\u2010Mouth Disease Case"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"33","author":[{"given":"Alexandre","family":"Cordier","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"INRA, UMR1302 SMART, F\u201035000 Rennes, France; AGROCAMPUS OUEST UMR1302 SMART  F\u201035000 Rennes France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jean","family":"Gohin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"INRA, UMR1302 SMART, F\u201035000 Rennes, France; AGROCAMPUS OUEST UMR1302 SMART  F\u201035000 Rennes France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephane","family":"Krebs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"INRA, UMR1300 Biology, Epidemiology and Risk Analysis in Animal Health, BP 40706, F\u201044307 Nantes, France; LUNAM Universit\u00e9, Oniris Nantes\u2010Atlantic College of Veterinary Medicine and Food Sciences and Engineering  UMR BioEpAR, F\u201044307 Nantes France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Arnaud","family":"Rault","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"INRA, UMR1302 SMART, F\u201035000 Rennes, France; AGROCAMPUS OUEST UMR1302 SMART  F\u201035000 Rennes France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2012,10,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1074070800028911"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-8276.2007.01006.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9353.2009.01477.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-5877(94)00433-J"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-5877(03)00004-7"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","first-page":"441","article-title":"A general equilibrium analysis of foreign and domestic demand shocks arising from mad cow disease in the United States","volume":"31","author":"Devadoss S","year":"2006","journal-title":"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/erae\/30.2.125"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/erae\/jbq047"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/erae\/26.1.39"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1074070800022367"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/0002-9092.00085"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1349889"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","volume-title":"22th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Series on the Dynamics of Agricultural Commodities and their Responses to Disruptions of Considerable Magnitude","author":"Conrad SH","year":"2004"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","unstructured":"PaarlbergPL SeitzingerAH LeeJG MathewsKH.Economic Impacts of Foreign Animal Disease. ERR\u201057. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture Econ. Res. Serv. May 2008."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S106828050001008X"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/260209"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/261942"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jedc.2003.08.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00181-007-0122-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/erae\/jbm040"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_1","first-page":"513","volume-title":"Handbook of Agricultural Economics","author":"Barry PJ","year":"2001"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_23_1","volume-title":"Series on the Neutrality of Decoupled Payments in the Presence of Credit Market Imperfections","author":"Monge\u2010Arino F","year":"2007"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_8_24_1","first-page":"19","article-title":"On the economic rationality of market participants: The case of expectations in the U.S. pork market","volume":"24","author":"Chavas J\u2010P","year":"1999","journal-title":"Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1243788"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1242129"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1079\/9780851990774.0000","volume-title":"The Economics of Livestock Disease Insurance \u2013 Concepts, Issues and International Case Studies","author":"Koontz SR","year":"2006"}],"container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1111%2Fj.1539-6924.2012.01902.x","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2012.01902.x","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,14]],"date-time":"2023-10-14T13:26:36Z","timestamp":1697289996000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2012.01902.x"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2012,10,18]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2013,3]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2012.01902.x"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2012.01902.x","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0272-4332","1539-6924"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0272-4332","type":"print"},{"value":"1539-6924","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2012,10,18]]}}}