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Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 2012; 40: 37\u201345. \u00a9 2011 John Wiley &amp; Sons A\/S<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p><jats:bold>Objectives:\u2002<\/jats:bold> To use a novel statistical analysis in the development of caries risk assessment models for preschool children for use in a particular community setting.<\/jats:p><jats:p><jats:bold>Methods:\u2002<\/jats:bold> Data were collected longitudinally on a cohort of approximately 1500 children born in one calendar year in the city of Dundee, Scotland. A dental examination and oral microbiological saliva sample, together with parental and health visitor questionnaires, were completed for each child at ages 1, 2, 3 and 4\u2003years. The 1\u2010year data were analysed using chi\u2010squared automated interaction detector analysis (CHAID) to produce a set of caries risk assessment models for predicting caries in 4\u2010year\u2010olds.<\/jats:p><jats:p><jats:bold>Results:\u2002<\/jats:bold> Four risk models were developed using CHAID analysis for caries at 4\u2003years of age using risk assessment data collected at age 1. These models included two \u2018any\u2019 caries\u2013risk models (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u2003=\u2003697, dmft &gt;0) and two \u2018high\u2019 caries\u2013risk models (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u2003=\u2003784, dmft \u22653) depending on the use of the d<jats:sub>1<\/jats:sub> (enamel and dentine) or d<jats:sub>3<\/jats:sub> (dentine only) level of caries detection. The most appropriate model developed for use was shown to be the CHAID high caries\u2013risk model at the d<jats:sub>3<\/jats:sub> level of detection (d<jats:sub>3<\/jats:sub>mft \u22653). This had a sensitivity of 65% and specificity of 69%.<\/jats:p><jats:p><jats:bold>Conclusions:\u2002<\/jats:bold> An appropriate risk assessment model for use in a particular community setting predicting caries at age 4\u2003years from data collected at age 1\u2003year was developed. This has been termed the Dundee Caries Risk Assessment Model.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0528.2011.00630.x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,8,12]],"date-time":"2011-08-12T16:50:49Z","timestamp":1313167849000},"page":"37-45","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":33,"title":["Development of the Dundee Caries Risk Assessment Model (DCRAM) \u2013 risk model development using a novel application of CHAID analysis"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"40","author":[{"given":"Heather M. 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