{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,6]],"date-time":"2026-03-06T09:59:54Z","timestamp":1772791194099,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":47,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2012,1,9]],"date-time":"2012-01-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1326067200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"name":"European Commission - DG Environment"},{"name":"DG Climate Action","award":["07.0307\/2009\/541003\/SER\/C5"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["07.0307\/2009\/541003\/SER\/C5"]}]},{"name":"DG Climate Action","award":["07.0307\/2009\/541003\/SER\/C5"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["07.0307\/2009\/541003\/SER\/C5"]}]},{"name":"European Community's Seventh Framework Programme","award":["n\u00b0212535"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["n\u00b0212535"]}]},{"name":"Climate Change - Terrestrial Adaptation and Mitigation in Europe"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["GCB Bioenergy"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Forests of the European Union (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">EU<\/jats:styled-content>) have been intensively managed for decades, and they have formed a significant sink for carbon dioxide (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CO<\/jats:styled-content><jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>) from the atmosphere over the past 50\u00a0years. The reasons for this behavior are multiple, among them are: forest aging, area expansion, increasing plant productivity due to environmental changes of many kinds, and, most importantly, the growth rates of European forest having been higher than harvest rates. <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">EU<\/jats:styled-content> countries have agreed to reduce total emissions of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">GHG<\/jats:styled-content> by 20% in 2020 compared to 1990, excluding the forest sink.<\/jats:p><jats:p>A relevant question for climate policy is: how long will the current sink of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">EU<\/jats:styled-content> forests be maintained in the near future? And could it be affected by other mitigation measures such as bioenergy? In this article we assess tradeoffs of bioenergy use and carbon sequestration at large scale and describe results of the comparison of two advanced forest management models that are used to project <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CO<\/jats:styled-content><jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub> emissions and removals from <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">EU<\/jats:styled-content> forests until 2030. <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">EFISCEN<\/jats:styled-content>, a detailed statistical matrix model and G4M, a geographically explicit economic forestry model, use scenarios of future harvest rates and forest growth information to estimate the future carbon balance of forest biomass. Two scenarios were assessed: the <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">EU<\/jats:styled-content> baseline scenario and the <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">EU<\/jats:styled-content> reference scenario (including additional bioenergy and climate policies).<\/jats:p><jats:p>Our projections suggest a significant decline of the sink until 2030 in the baseline scenario of about 25\u201340% (or 65\u2013125 Mt <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">CO<\/jats:styled-content><jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>) compared to the models\u2019 2010 estimate. Including additional bioenergy targets of <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">EU<\/jats:styled-content> member states has an effect on the development of this sink, which is not accounted in the <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">EU<\/jats:styled-content> emission reduction target. A sensitivity analysis was performed on the role of future wood demand and proved the importance of this driver for the future sink development.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1757-1707.2011.01152.x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,1,10]],"date-time":"2012-01-10T05:25:12Z","timestamp":1326173112000},"page":"773-783","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":75,"title":["Projection of the future <scp>EU<\/scp> forest <scp>CO<\/scp><sub>2<\/sub> sink as affected by recent bioenergy policies using two advanced forest management models"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"4","author":[{"given":"Hannes","family":"B\u00f6ttcher","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1 A\u20102361 Laxenburg Austria"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Pieter Johannes","family":"Verkerk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"European Forest Institute Sustainability and Climate Change Unit Torikatu 34 80100 Joensuu Finland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mykola","family":"Gusti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1 A\u20102361 Laxenburg Austria"},{"name":"Lviv Polytechnic National University 12 Bandery Str. 79013 Lviv Ukraine"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Petr","family":"Havl\u00cdk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1 A\u20102361 Laxenburg Austria"},{"name":"International Livestock Research Institute P.O. 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