{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,20]],"date-time":"2026-08-20T15:41:14Z","timestamp":1787240474893,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":27,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,22]],"date-time":"2014-07-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1405987200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/3.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000780","name":"European Commission","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["FP7-HEALTH-306029 TRIGGER"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["FP7-HEALTH-306029 TRIGGER"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000780","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J Clinic Periodontology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2014,9]]},"abstract":"Abstract<\/jats:title>\n \n Aim<\/jats:title>\n To understand degeneration of healthy sites and identify factors associated with disease progression in patients with chronic periodontitis.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Material and Methods<\/jats:title>\n \n Data on healthy sites from 163\n A<\/jats:styled-content>\n merican and\n S<\/jats:styled-content>\n wedish subjects were analysed using two\u2010three\u2010state (health, gingivitis, chronic periodontitis)\n M<\/jats:styled-content>\n arkov models based on bleeding on probing (\n BOP<\/jats:styled-content>\n ), and either clinical attachment level (\n CAL<\/jats:styled-content>\n )\u00a0+\u00a0\n BOP<\/jats:styled-content>\n or pocket depth (\n PD<\/jats:styled-content>\n )\u00a0+\u00a0\n BOP<\/jats:styled-content>\n .\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Results<\/jats:title>\n \n In 2\u00a0years, 10% (\n CAL<\/jats:styled-content>\n \u00a0+\u00a0\n BOP<\/jats:styled-content>\n ) and 3% (\n PD<\/jats:styled-content>\n \u00a0+\u00a0\n BOP<\/jats:styled-content>\n ) of healthy sites developed chronic periodontitis. On average, healthy sites remained healthy for 32\u00a0months before transiting in both models. Most transitions (87\u201397%) from health were to the gingivitis state. The expected duration of the gingivitis lesion was 4\u20135\u00a0months and sites recovered with a high probability (96\u201398%). Disease severity as measured by number of sites with\n CAL<\/jats:styled-content>\n \/\n PD<\/jats:styled-content>\n \u00a0>\u00a04\u00a0mm at baseline and smoking, were associated with fast progression from health to chronic periodontitis within 6\u00a0months as were gingival redness in the\n PD<\/jats:styled-content>\n \u00a0+\u00a0\n BOP<\/jats:styled-content>\n model only. With age, the rate of disease progression to gingivitis decreased.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n \n Transition probabilities for gingivitis and chronic periodontitis were higher with\n CAL<\/jats:styled-content>\n \u00a0+\u00a0\n BOP<\/jats:styled-content>\n than with\n PD<\/jats:styled-content>\n \u00a0+\u00a0\n BOP<\/jats:styled-content>\n . Smoking and disease severity were significant predictors for fast progression.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/jcpe.12278","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,3]],"date-time":"2014-06-03T02:23:26Z","timestamp":1401762206000},"page":"837-845","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":59,"title":["Comparing clinical attachment level and pocket depth for predicting periodontal disease progression in healthy sites of patients with chronic periodontitis using multi\u2010state\n M<\/scp>\n arkov models"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"Ibrahimu","family":"Mdala","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Oral Biology Faculty of Dentistry University of Oslo Oslo Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ingar","family":"Olsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Oral Biology Faculty of Dentistry University of Oslo Oslo Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anne D.","family":"Haffajee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Periodontology The Forsyth Institute Cambridge MA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sigmund S.","family":"Socransky","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Periodontology The Forsyth Institute Cambridge MA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Magne","family":"Thoresen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics Faculty of Medicine University of Oslo Oslo Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Birgitte Freiesleben","family":"de Blasio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics Faculty of Medicine University of Oslo Oslo Norway"},{"name":"Division of Infectious Disease Surveillance Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology Norwegian Institute of Public Health Oslo Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(19971015)16:19<2191::AID-SIM645>3.0.CO;2-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","first-page":"177","article-title":"Global risk factors and risk indicators for periodontal diseases","volume":"29","author":"Albandar J. 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