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The primary outcome was detection of sites with progressing attachment loss sites over 6\u00a0months in patients who received scaling and root planing or oral hygiene only. The predictive potential of 27 biomarkers in serum, whole saliva and subgingival plaque was evaluated using three classification algorithms (Support Vector Machines; Na\u00efve Bayes Classifier; and Linear Discriminant Analysis) within an ensemble predictive modelling framework.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Disease progression occurred in 24.6% of subjects (28\/114). Predictive modelling using Na\u00efve Bayes Classifier identified progressors best with sensitivity of ~89%. The use of the three classification algorithms revealed the concerted role of salivary matrix metalloproteinase\u20108, serum biomarkers (serum amyloid P, matrix metalloproteinase 1, bactericidal permeability\u2010increasing protein, isoprostane) along with levels of <jats:italic>Porphryomonas gingivalis<\/jats:italic> and <jats:italic>Tannerella forsythia<\/jats:italic> in plaque in predicting progressors.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>Synergistic utility of baseline bacterial and inflammatory biomarkers from saliva, serum and plaque predicted disease progression.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/jcpe.13064","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,10]],"date-time":"2019-01-10T20:40:04Z","timestamp":1547152804000},"page":"160-169","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":26,"title":["Biologic modelling of periodontal disease progression"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"46","author":[{"given":"Radhakrishnan","family":"Nagarajan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Biomedical Informatics College of Medicine University of Kentucky  Lexington Kentucky"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Craig S.","family":"Miller","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Oral Diagnosis, Oral Medicine and Oral Radiology University of Kentucky  Lexington Kentucky"},{"name":"Center for Oral Health Research College of Dentistry University of Kentucky  Lexington Kentucky"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"suffix":"III","given":"Dolph","family":"Dawson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Oral Health Research College of Dentistry University of Kentucky  Lexington Kentucky"},{"name":"Division of Periodontics University of Kentucky  Lexington Kentucky"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9743-6585","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jeffrey L.","family":"Ebersole","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Oral Health Research College of Dentistry University of Kentucky  Lexington Kentucky"},{"name":"Department of Biomedical Sciences School of Dental Medicine University of Nevada Las Vegas  Las Vegas Nevada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,2,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10072-015-2358-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/prd.12006"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0757.2010.00353.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/prd.12000"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3402\/jom.v8.30112"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-051X.2006.00961.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-051X.2010.01670.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jcpe.12366"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/154405910408300214"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/hmg\/ddt065"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","first-page":"35","article-title":"Occurrence of self\u2010reported systemic medical conditions in patients with periodontal disease","volume":"44","author":"Dumitrescu A. 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