{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T14:09:16Z","timestamp":1787062156677,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,10]],"date-time":"2025-03-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1741564800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J Clinic Periodontology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To externally validate the potential applicability of the 2018 classification of periodontal diseases as a risk assessment tool, through the use of a nomogram built on a multivariate predictor model.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Materials and Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Data from 459 patients with periodontitis, across four cohorts (three in the United States, and one in the United Kingdom), were retrospectively analysed. After staging and grading periodontitis before active periodontal therapy (APT), patients were categorised by the model as having \u2018low tooth loss\u2019 (\u2264\u20091 teeth lost due periodontal reasons [TLP]) or \u2018high tooth loss\u2019 (\u2265\u20092 TLP) at a 10\u2010year follow\u2010up. Model discrimination was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC\u2010ROC) curve. Calibration was assessed through calibration plots, calibration\u2010in\u2010the\u2010large (CITL), calibration slope and the expected:observed (E:O) ratio. Recalibration methods, including Temperature Scaling, Isotonic Regression and Beta Calibration, were also tested.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      The original nomogram yielded an aggregate AUC\u2010ROC 0.72 but showed poor calibration. Isotonic recalibration improved the AUC\u2010ROC to 0.77 and enhanced calibration metrics, achieving an\n                      <jats:italic>E<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2010statistic of 1.00, CITL of 0.00 and a calibration slope of 1.00.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A nomogram based on the components of the 2018 periodontal disease classification can serve as a prognostic tool with cross\u2010site applicability across clinical settings in industrialised countries, accurately predicting the 10\u2010year risk of tooth loss due to periodontitis from the initial assessment conducted before the start of APT.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/jcpe.14143","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,10]],"date-time":"2025-03-10T12:52:23Z","timestamp":1741611143000},"page":"1044-1055","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Multi\u2010Centre External Validation of a Nomogram for\u00a010\u2010Year Periodontal Tooth Loss Prediction"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"52","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2081-6651","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matteo","family":"Serroni","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Periodontology Unit, Department of Innovative Technologies in Medicine &amp; Dentistry University \u2018G. D'Annunzio\u2019 of Chieti\u2010Pescara  Chieti Italy"},{"name":"Department of Periodontics and Preventive Dentistry University of Pittsburgh School of Dental Medicine  Pittsburgh Pennsylvania USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3029-8130","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrea","family":"Ravid\u00e0","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Periodontics and Preventive Dentistry University of Pittsburgh School of Dental Medicine  Pittsburgh Pennsylvania USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4102-1759","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pasquale","family":"Santamaria","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Periodontology Unit, Centre for Host\u2010Microbiome Interactions, Faculty of Dentistry Oral and Craniofacial Sciences, King's College London  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5387-1753","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Debora R.","family":"Dias","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Periodontics and Preventive Dentistry University of Pittsburgh School of Dental Medicine  Pittsburgh Pennsylvania USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1029-3735","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Guo\u2010Liang","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Diagnosis &amp; Oral Health University of Louisville School of Dentistry  Louisville Kentucky USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-6322-2754","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Samar","family":"Shaikh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Periodontology Tufts University School of Dental Medicine  Boston Massachusetts USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-9389-353X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nima David","family":"Natanzi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Periodontology Tufts University School of Dental Medicine  Boston Massachusetts USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5067-7317","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Muhammad H. 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