{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]],"date-time":"2026-09-17T02:04:01Z","timestamp":1789610641707,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":45,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]],"date-time":"2026-08-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785715200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]],"date-time":"2026-08-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785715200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J Clinic Periodontology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aim<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To critically appraise the methodological quality and historical evolution of prognostic models for periodontitis.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Materials and Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A systematic search was conducted in three databases. Eligible studies were classified as conceptual tools, category\u2010based tools and data\u2010driven models. Category\u2010based and data\u2010driven models were evaluated with PROBAST. Risk of bias (ROB) was compared across four domains: Participants, Predictors, Outcome and Analysis.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Twenty\u2010seven studies were included. Prognostic methods evolved from qualitative risk categories and expert\u2010based classifications towards quantitative, individualised probability estimates generated through multivariable statistical and machine\u2010learning models, alongside progressive improvements in outcome definition, prediction time and risk expression formats. Conceptual tools were not evaluable under PROBAST due to the absence of empirical data. Category\u2010based tools showed limitations in predictor handling and validation rather than bias per se. Data\u2010driven models demonstrated progressive refinement: earlier studies lacked consistent validation, whereas recent models more frequently report internal validation, calibration metrics and external validation. However, all studies except one were classified as high ROB. Domain\u2010level assessment showed strengths in the Participants domain but persistent limitations in the Analysis domain. Methodological improvements after TRIPOD were modest.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Prognostic models reflect distinct methodological profiles across design type. Conceptual and category\u2010based frameworks remain clinically relevant historically, while data\u2010driven models represent the contemporary standard but retain important methodological gaps.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Trial Registration<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>PROSPERO number: CRD42024525505<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/jcpe.70180","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,4]],"date-time":"2026-08-04T06:45:28Z","timestamp":1785825928000},"page":"1513-1528","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Methodological Quality of Prognostic Models for Periodontitis: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"53","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5537-7276","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maryia","family":"Karaban","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Periodontics and Preventive Dentistry School of Dental Medicine, University of Pittsburgh  Pittsburgh Pennsylvania USA"},{"name":"Department of Biomedical and Neuromotor Sciences University of Bologna  Bologna Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5387-1753","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Debora R.","family":"Dias","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Periodontics and Preventive Dentistry School of Dental Medicine, University of Pittsburgh  Pittsburgh Pennsylvania USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5647-4414","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Giuseppe","family":"Troiano","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine and Surgery LUM University  Casamassima Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5575-629X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sahar","family":"Baniameri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Periodontics and Preventive Dentistry School of Dental Medicine, University of Pittsburgh  Pittsburgh Pennsylvania USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0001-6017-0568","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ishan","family":"Ahuja","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Periodontics and Preventive Dentistry School of Dental Medicine, University of Pittsburgh  Pittsburgh Pennsylvania USA"},{"name":"Temple University Maurice H. 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