{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,24]],"date-time":"2026-04-24T16:13:19Z","timestamp":1777047199243,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,26]],"date-time":"2025-06-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1750896000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":25,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,1]],"date-time":"2025-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1748736000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005911","name":"Najran University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005911","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Evaluation Clinical Practice"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Rationale<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Between\u2010study heterogeneity poses challenges to the generalisability of meta\u2010analytical results, which can influence their ability to predict outcomes in future studies. Prediction intervals have been proposed to account for both uncertainty and heterogeneity, yet their real\u2010world performance in predicting future studies has not been systematically evaluated.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aims and Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study aims to assess the prediction performance of meta\u2010analyses, focusing on how effectively they predict later study results based on meta\u2010analyses of earlier studies.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This empirical study used a comprehensive collection of meta\u2010analyses from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Through in\u2010sample evaluation, the success of predicting later study results was assessed based on meta\u2010analyses of earlier studies in Cochrane reviews. The impact of factors such as the number of studies in the meta\u2010analysis and uncertainties in heterogeneity estimation was also analysed.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The findings reveal that prediction failures are common, particularly as the number of studies in the meta\u2010analysis increases. This may be attributed to uncertainties in estimating between\u2010study heterogeneity. Conversely, when the number of studies is small, the proportion of successful predictions is high. However, this is likely due to large uncertainties in predictions and the limited information provided by fewer studies, which may reduce their utility in providing valuable evidence for future studies.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>These results underscore the importance of cautious interpretation and further investigation when applying meta\u2010analytical findings to future studies. Our findings suggest several potential strategies for predicting future study results through evidence synthesis, with particular emphasis on carefully considering between\u2010study heterogeneity, the number of studies included in a meta\u2010analysis, and the temporal trends in individual study results.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/jep.70172","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,26]],"date-time":"2025-06-26T09:05:36Z","timestamp":1750928736000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Prediction Performance of Earlier Studies for Later Studies in Cochrane Reviews"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"31","author":[{"given":"Fahad M.","family":"Al Amer","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Arts Najran University Najran Saudi Arabia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3562-9816","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lifeng","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470743386"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-985X.2008.00552.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.d549"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.1186"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a009981"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.6980"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jep.13159"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2015-010247"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jrsm.1319"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/eci.13524"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ejo\/cjab037"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bimj.200510175"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0197-2456(86)90046-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780101105"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjebm-2019-111191"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jrsm.1316"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v036.i03"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","first-page":"138","article-title":"The Inverse of the Freeman\u2013Tukey Double Arcsine Transformation","volume":"32","author":"Miller J. 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