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Previous research has highlighted the importance of temperature. However, these studies often considered only monthly or seasonal averages. We analysed 12\u2009years of data at the ecosystem level to identify the drivers of annual fluctuations in YOY perch stocks. We used traditional thermal indices based on average values, as well as thermal indices reflecting daily temperature fluctuations, derived from 36\u2009years of in situ perch spawning data. Embryonic thermal conditions alone accounted for between 44% and 88% of the variation in YOY perch density across the lakes. An increase in temperature during the embryonic phase was beneficial, whereas significant daily variations had the opposite effect. In contrast, trophic factors and the adult stock did not exhibit consistent trends. Our study confirms previous findings using ecosystem\u2010scale analyses, long\u2010term data and novel thermal indices, validating in natura the central role of spring thermal regimes in shaping recruitment and improving our understanding of recruitment variability under climate change.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/jfb.70541","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,29]],"date-time":"2026-06-29T04:25:34Z","timestamp":1782707134000},"page":"1701-1713","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Early\u2010life temperature drives recruitment success in Eurasian perch (\n                    <scp>\n                      <i>P<\/i>\n                    <\/scp>\n                    <i>erca fluviatilis<\/i>\n                    ) populations"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"109","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2576-853X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Valentin","family":"Cavoy","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL  Thonon\u2010les\u2010Bains France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jean","family":"Guillard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL  Thonon\u2010les\u2010Bains France"},{"name":"OFB, INRAE, University Savoie Mont Blanc, P\u00f4le R&amp;D ECLA  France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C\u00e9cilia","family":"Barouillet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL  Thonon\u2010les\u2010Bains France"},{"name":"OFB, INRAE, University Savoie Mont Blanc, P\u00f4le R&amp;D ECLA  France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1075-5661","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Orlane","family":"Anneville","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL  Thonon\u2010les\u2010Bains France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Najwa","family":"Sharaf","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"OFB, INRAE, University Savoie Mont Blanc, P\u00f4le R&amp;D ECLA  France"},{"name":"Aix Marseille Univ., INRAE, RECOVER  Aix\u2010en\u2010Provence France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christian","family":"Gillet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL  Thonon\u2010les\u2010Bains France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8070-9452","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chlo\u00e9","family":"Goulon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL  Thonon\u2010les\u2010Bains France"},{"name":"OFB, INRAE, University Savoie Mont Blanc, P\u00f4le R&amp;D ECLA  France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/12-1903.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2960\/J.v8.a6"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00377004"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4236\/ojas.2015.54042"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Advances in marine biology","author":"Bailey K. 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