{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T15:20:21Z","timestamp":1791300021368,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,2,26]],"date-time":"2020-02-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1582675200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005564","name":"Gilead Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005564","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J of Gastro and Hepatol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background and Aim<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD\/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long\u2010term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5\u00a0551\u00a0000 [4\u00a0748\u00a0000\u20136\u00a0306\u00a0000] cases in 2019) to 7\u00a0024\u00a0000 [5\u00a0838\u00a0000\u20137\u00a0886\u00a0000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100\u20133300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100\u20136100) deaths in 2030.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/jgh.15009","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,2,12]],"date-time":"2020-02-12T02:34:44Z","timestamp":1581474884000},"page":"1628-1635","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":119,"title":["Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019\u20132030"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"35","author":[{"given":"Leon A","family":"Adams","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Medical School The University of Western Australia  Perth Western Australia Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9015-7997","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stuart K","family":"Roberts","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology The Alfred  Melbourne Victoria Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Simone I","family":"Strasser","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"AW Morrow Gastroenterology and Liver Centre Royal Prince Alfred Hospital  Sydney New South Wales Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Suzanne E","family":"Mahady","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine Monash University  Melbourne Victoria Australia"},{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology Royal Melbourne Hospital  Melbourne Victoria Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth","family":"Powell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Princess Alexandra Hospital  Brisbane Queensland Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2367-6535","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chris","family":"Estes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Disease Analysis  Lafayette Colorado USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Homie","family":"Razavi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Disease Analysis  Lafayette Colorado USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jacob","family":"George","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Medicine University of Sydney  Sydney New South Wales Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,2,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_5_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.28123"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1185\/03007995.2010.506375"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nrgastro.2013.171"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.28267"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_6_1","unstructured":"Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.Overweight & obesity 2018[Available from:https:\/\/www.aihw.gov.au\/reports\u2010statistics\/behaviours\u2010risk\u2010factors\/overweight\u2010obesity\/data]."},{"key":"e_1_2_5_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jgh.13857"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cgh.2014.04.014"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.29085"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2014.11.034"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cgh.2012.10.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_12_1","unstructured":"YounossiZM KoenigAB AbdelatifD FazelY HenryL WymerM.Global epidemiology of non\u2010alcoholic fatty liver disease\u2014meta\u2010analytic assessment of prevalence incidence and outcomes. Hepatology.2015."},{"key":"e_1_2_5_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2018.05.036"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"EstesC RazaviH LoombaR YounossiZ SanyalAJ.Modeling the epidemic of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease demonstrates an exponential increase in burden of disease. Hepatology.2017.","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.29466"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(17)32129-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.21496"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-1253(16)30181-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2014.05.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/QAD.0b013e32830e6d51"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_20_1","unstructured":"Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program research data (1973\u20132013) [Internet]. National Cancer Institute. 2016 [cited August 10th 2016]. Available from:www.seer.cancer.gov."},{"key":"e_1_2_5_21_1","unstructured":"Australian Bureau of Statistics.3105.0.65.001\u2014Australian historical population statistics 2016 2019[Available from:https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/AUSSTATS\/abs@.nsf\/DetailsPage\/3105.0.65.0012016?OpenDocument]."},{"key":"e_1_2_5_22_1","unstructured":"Australian Bureau of Statistics.3222.0\u2014population projections Australia 2017 (base)\u20142066 2019[Available from:https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/AUSSTATS\/abs@.nsf\/Lookup\/3222.0Main+Features12017%20(base)%20\u2010%202066?OpenDocument]."},{"key":"e_1_2_5_23_1","volume-title":"World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision","author":"United Nations, Department of Economic Social Affairs Population Division","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10620-013-2743-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.29529"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1053\/j.gastro.2018.04.034"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2017.07.027"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.21103"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_29_1","first-page":"241A","article-title":"Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease without cirrhosis is an emergent and independent risk factor of hepatocellular carcinoma: a population based study","volume":"56","author":"Rahman RN","year":"2012","journal-title":"Hepatology"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_30_1","volume-title":"SEER Survival Monograph: Cancer Survival among Adults: U.S. SEER Program, 1988\u20132001, Patient and Tumor Characteristics","author":"Ries L","year":"2007"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/sj.ijo.0800741"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(16)30054-X"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nrgastro.2017.109"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kws448"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/MEG.0b013e32832fcdf0"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2008.10.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0201308"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1053\/j.gastro.2005.03.084"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_39_1","unstructured":"Australia and New Zealand Organ Donation (ANZOD) Registry.Annual report of the Australia and New Zealand Organ Donation Registry (ANZOD).2018."},{"key":"e_1_2_5_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/lt.25361"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.26986"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/imj.12963"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_43_1","unstructured":"Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.Cancer compendium: information and trends by cancer type 2018[Available from:https:\/\/www.aihw.gov.au\/reports\/cancer\/cancer\u2010compendium\u2010information\u2010trends\u2010by\u2010cancer\/report\u2010contents\/summary]."},{"key":"e_1_2_5_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12885-015-1197-x"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2013.08.011"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/MCG.0000000000000916"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_47_1","unstructured":"Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.Diabetes snapshot 2018[Available from:https:\/\/www.aihw.gov.au\/reports\/diabetes\/diabetes\u2010snapshot\/contents\/how\u2010many\u2010australians\u2010have\u2010diabetes]."},{"key":"e_1_2_5_48_1","volume-title":"Diabetes: The Silent Pandemic and Its Impact on Australia","author":"Shaw J","year":"2012"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ijo.2016.204"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2016.05.021"},{"key":"e_1_2_5_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jgh.13856"}],"container-title":["Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1111%2Fjgh.15009","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/jgh.15009","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/jgh.15009","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/jgh.15009","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,5]],"date-time":"2023-09-05T11:47:32Z","timestamp":1693914452000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/jgh.15009"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,2,26]]},"references-count":50,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,9]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/jgh.15009"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/jgh.15009","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0815-9319","1440-1746"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0815-9319","type":"print"},{"value":"1440-1746","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,2,26]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2019-11-06","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2020-02-02","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2020-02-26","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}