{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,16]],"date-time":"2026-04-16T15:32:54Z","timestamp":1776353574853,"version":"3.51.2"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,7]],"date-time":"2025-03-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1741305600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100009619","name":"Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["JP21lk0201701"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JP21lk0201701"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100009619","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J of Gastro and Hepatol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study aimed to estimate the individualized effect of weight change since age 20 on the development of metabolic dysfunction\u2013associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in Japanese non\u2010obese individuals. We also assessed the clinical characteristics of high\u2010risk individuals with weight gain.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Method<\/jats:title><jats:p>This retrospective cohort study included non\u2010obese individuals who underwent health examinations at St. Luke's International Hospital between 2008 and 2018. We developed a counterfactual prediction model using logistic regression to predict the risk of MASLD onset within 3\u2009years and predicted counterfactual risks for 5 weight change scenarios: (i) weight loss &lt;\u2009\u22123\u2009kg, (ii) weight maintenance: \u00b13\u2009kg, (iii) 3.1\u20136\u2009kg gain, (iv) 6.1\u20139.9\u2009kg gain, and (v) major weight gain \u2265\u200910\u2009kg. Individualized effects of weight change were estimated using a risk difference scale, with variability assessed through their distributions and forest plots.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>A total of 20\u2009886 individuals (64.4% women) were included, and 2016 (9.6%) developed MASLD within 3\u2009years. The counterfactual prediction model showed the average risk difference for major weight gain \u2265\u200910\u2009kg was 6.6% (median: 5.1%), with individual risk differences varied from 2% to 19% across individuals. Forest plot showed an increased average risk of 5% for men, abdominal obesity, dyslipidemia, hyperuricemia, and high ALT levels.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>Weight change since age 20 is a significant risk factor for MASLD development in non\u2010obese populations, but its impact varies widely among individuals. Men and individuals with abdominal obesity, dyslipidemia, hyperuricemia, and high ALT levels are particularly susceptible to the effects of weight gain.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/jgh.16927","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,11]],"date-time":"2025-03-11T15:44:55Z","timestamp":1741707895000},"page":"1255-1262","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Individualized Effects of Weight Gain in Adulthood on the Development of MASLD in Japanese Non\u2010Obese Individuals"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"40","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-3594-5963","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kaiji","family":"Fukamizo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine The University of Tokyo  Tokyo 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