{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,30]],"date-time":"2026-10-30T00:29:40Z","timestamp":1793320180398,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,7]],"date-time":"2026-05-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1778112000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,7]],"date-time":"2026-05-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1778112000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J of Gastro and Hepatol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background and Aim<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In Japan, gastric cancer (GC) and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) account for nearly all fatal upper gastrointestinal malignancies. A unified model that simultaneously predicts the incidence of these two cancers could help optimize endoscopic screening and postindex surveillance strategies.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      We conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study of 33\u2009422 individuals who underwent screening esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) at 17 health check\u2010up institutions across Japan. Clinical and endoscopic data from the index EGD were used to develop a 5\u2010year risk prediction model for GC or ESCC. Significant predictors were identified using Cox regression, and a scoring system (J\u2010GESS score) was constructed by scaling\n                      <jats:italic>\u03b2<\/jats:italic>\n                      coefficients. Model performance was evaluated using the 5\u2010year inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) Brier score, calibration, and c indices. Internal validation used bootstrap resampling (500 iterations) to obtain optimism\u2010corrected estimates. Decision curve analysis (DCA) assessed clinical utility at 5\u2009years.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>At 5\u2009years, the IPCW\u2010estimated cumulative incidence of GC or ESCC was 0.84% (234 events). Independent predictors included older age, male sex, ever smoking, and endoscopic gastric mucosal atrophy. The model showed good calibration at 5\u2009years (calibration\u2010in\u2010the\u2010large 0.005; slope 1.055; identical after optimism correction) and robust discrimination (Harrell's c index 0.81; Uno's 5\u2010year c index 0.81). DCA demonstrated positive net benefit across clinically relevant thresholds.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Using routinely collected health check\u2010up data, we developed a unified, practical, and internally validated 5\u2010year prediction model for GC and ESCC. The J\u2010GESS score enables effective risk stratification and may inform postindex endoscopic surveillance and screening interval optimization in Japan.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/jgh.70409","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,7]],"date-time":"2026-05-07T08:46:47Z","timestamp":1778143607000},"page":"2073-2081","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Five\u2010Year Unified Risk Prediction Model for Gastric and Esophageal Cancer Based on Nationwide Health Check\u2010Up Data in Japan: J\u2010GESS Score"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"41","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7301-1307","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kenta","family":"Watanabe","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology Akita University Graduate School of Medicine  Akita 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of Internal Medicine Shimane University Faculty of Medicine  Izumo Shimane Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tomoyuki","family":"Koike","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine  Sendai Miyagi Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hideyuki","family":"Sugawara","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine  Sendai Miyagi Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kiyotaka","family":"Asanuma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Cancer Detection Center, Miyagi Cancer Society  Sendai Miyagi Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5337-4802","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yasuhiko","family":"Abe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of 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