{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,18]],"date-time":"2026-10-18T03:02:43Z","timestamp":1792292563571,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":22,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,12]],"date-time":"2019-06-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1560297600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003776","name":"Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003776","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J Oral Pathology Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Nomograms are graphical calculating devices used to predict risk of malignant transformation (MT) or response to treatment during cancer management. To date, a nomogram has not been used to predict clinical outcome during oral potentially malignant disorder (PMD) treatment. The aim of this study was to create a nomogram for use by clinicians to predict the probability of MT, thereby facilitating accurate assessment of risk and objective decision\u2010making during individual patient management.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Clinico\u2010pathological data from a previously treated cohort of 590 newly presenting PMD patients were reviewed and clinical outcomes categorized as disease free, persistent PMD or MT. Multiple logistic regression was used to predict the probability of MT in the cohort using age, gender, lesion type, site and incision biopsy histopathological diagnoses. Internal validation and calibration of the model was performed using the bootstrap method (n\u00a0=\u00a01000), and bias\u2010corrected indices of model performance were computed.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Potentially malignant disorders were predominantly leukoplakias (79%), presenting most frequently at floor of mouth and lateral tongue sites (51%); 99 patients (17%) developed oral squamous cell carcinoma during the study period. The nomogram performed well when MT predictions were compared with patient outcome data, demonstrating good bias\u2010corrected discrimination and calibration (<jats:italic>D<jats:sub>xy<\/jats:sub><\/jats:italic>\u00a0=\u00a00.58; <jats:italic>C<\/jats:italic>\u00a0=\u00a00.790), with a sensitivity of 87% and specificity 63%, and a positive predictive value of 32% and negative predictive value 96%.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>The \u201cNewcastle Nomogram\u201d has been developed to predict the probability of MT in PMD, based on an internally validated statistical model. Based upon readily available and patient\u2010specific clinico\u2010pathological data, it provides clinicians with a pragmatic diagrammatic aid for clinical decision\u2010making during diagnosis and management of PMD.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/jop.12881","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,24]],"date-time":"2019-05-24T16:21:52Z","timestamp":1558714912000},"page":"662-668","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["The\u201cNewcastle Nomogram\u201d\u2014Statistical modelling predicts malignant transformation in potentially malignant disorders"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"48","author":[{"given":"Michaela L.","family":"Goodson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Newcastle University Medicine Malaysia Johor Malaysia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel R.","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Newcastle University Medicine Malaysia Johor Malaysia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter J.","family":"Thomson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Oral &amp; Maxillofacial Surgery, Faculty of Dentistry The University of Hong Kong Hong Kong SAR China<!--Query ID=\"q6\" Text=\"AUTHOR: Please check that authors and their affiliations are correct.\"-->"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781118702840.ch3"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hed.21131"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1308\/rcsfdj.2015.186"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1054\/ijom.2001.0189"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2013\/809248"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijom.2016.11.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jop.12627"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781118702840.ch5"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jop.12733"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1053\/suro.2002.32490"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djj190"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1245\/ASO.2003.03.015"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","first-page":"3967","article-title":"Postoperative nomogram predicting risk of recurrence after radical cystectomy for bladder cancer","volume":"24","author":"International Bladder Cancer Consortium","year":"2007","journal-title":"J Clin Oncol"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.2006.06.1218"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/cncr.28407"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","first-page":"554","article-title":"An oral cavity carcinoma nomogram to predict benefit of adjuvant radiotherapy","volume":"139","author":"Wang SJ","year":"2013","journal-title":"JAMA Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.radonc.2014.06.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hed.24507"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hed.21856"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1308\/rcsfdj.2018.151"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jop.12625"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jop.12626"}],"container-title":["Journal of Oral Pathology &amp; 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