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Data were analyzed from 4599 young people from the 1993 Pelotas Birth Cohort in Brazil. The exposure was conduct problems (age 11\u2009years). Outcomes included hazardous alcohol consumption and illicit drug use (age 22\u2009years). Mediators included police arrest (by age 18\u2009years), gang membership (ages 18 and 22\u2009years), and school noncompletion (by age 22\u2009years). We performed counterfactual mediation using the parametric g\u2010computation formula to estimate the indirect effect via all three mediators simultaneously. After adjusting for confounders (including hyperactivity problems), conduct problems were weakly associated with police arrest (OR [95% CI]\u2009=\u20091.45 [0.97, 2.16]) and school noncompletion (OR [95% CI]\u2009=\u20091.46 [1.22, 1.74]), but not with gang membership. Police arrest and gang membership were associated with illicit drug use (OR [95% CI]\u2009=\u20093.84 [2.46, 5.99]; OR [95% CI]\u2009=\u20097.78 [4.30, 14.10], respectively) and with hazardous alcohol use (OR [95% CI]\u2009=\u20091.60 [1.08, 2.38]; OR [95% CI]\u2009=\u20091.88 [1.07, 3.30]), after adjusting for confounders (including hyperactivity and emotional problems). There was no association between school noncompletion and either outcome after confounder adjustment. There was little evidence for an indirect effect of conduct problems on hazardous alcohol use and illicit drug use via all three mediators after confounder adjustment. Findings highlight the importance of school professionals being aware of the risk for school noncompletion for those with conduct problems. Additionally, programmes designed to reduce substance use in Brazil should focus on young people involved in gangs, and in the criminal justice system.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/jora.70099","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,20]],"date-time":"2025-11-20T04:23:57Z","timestamp":1763612637000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Childhood conduct problems, potential snares in adolescence, and problematic substance use in Brazil"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"35","author":[{"given":"Fauve","family":"Stocker","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School University of Bristol  Bristol UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jon","family":"Heron","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School University of Bristol  Bristol UK"},{"name":"Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit at the University of Bristol, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School University of Bristol  Bristol UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Matthew","family":"Hickman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School University of Bristol  Bristol UK"},{"name":"Health Protection Research Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation (HPRU BSE) at the University of Bristol, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School  Bristol UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fernando C.","family":"Wehrmeister","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology Universidade Federal de Pelotas  Pelotas Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Helen","family":"Gon\u00e7alves","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology Universidade Federal de Pelotas  Pelotas Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ana Maria B.","family":"Menezes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology Universidade Federal de Pelotas  Pelotas Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5511-3454","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joseph","family":"Murray","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology Universidade Federal de Pelotas  Pelotas Brazil"},{"name":"Human Development and Violence Research Centre (DOVE), Universidade Federal de Pelotas  Pelotas Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7781-3857","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gemma","family":"Hammerton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School University of Bristol  Bristol UK"},{"name":"Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit at the University of Bristol, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School University of Bristol  Bristol UK"},{"name":"Health Protection Research Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation (HPRU BSE) at the University of Bristol, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School  Bristol UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_13_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1530-0277.1997.tb03811.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00127-009-0052-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_4_1","first-page":"1","volume-title":"The alcohol use disorders identification test guidelines for use in primary care","author":"Babor T. 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