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Recently, the St. Louis River Estuary (SLRE) has experienced numerous cHABs, but the locations, timing, and environmental conditions associated with them are unknown. We first investigated environmental predictors of cyanobacteria through a multifaceted approach, highlighting key relationships to understand past cHABs, and then performed a detailed spatiotemporal redundancy analysis of sampling data to optimize site selection and sampling frequency for future monitoring. We employed an oversampling approach over 2\u2009years at eight spatially heterogeneous stations. Random forest analysis paired with constrained ordination indicated that warm, late\u2010summer temperatures were an important predictor of cyanobacterial abundance (biovolume), and drought\u2010mediated stoichiometric nitrogen limitation may have facilitated dominance by diazotrophic cyanobacteria in 2023. Temporal redundancy analysis revealed no ideal sampling frequency, but late summer, weekly sampling, and as\u2010needed bloom response collections were deemed critical for tracking cHABs. A 30\u2010 to 40\u2010day lag effect between water temperature and cyanobacterial abundance suggested temperature as an early warning predictor of summer bloom intensity. Water quality was more spatially heterogeneous than phytoplankton communities, informing future monitoring site selection designed to comprehensively capture water quality variability and minimize phytoplankton community redundancy while prioritizing sites with past blooms. Our findings inform an optimized monitoring program for the SLRE and demonstrate a feasible monitoring optimization approach that could be developed and applied elsewhere to track risks from cHABs and other stressors.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/jpy.70215","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,7]],"date-time":"2026-08-07T09:09:40Z","timestamp":1786093780000},"page":"1264-1296","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Optimizing a long\u2010term monitoring strategy to track emerging cyanobacterial\u00a0blooms in a Great Lakes estuary"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"62","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-1667-4752","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Peter A.","family":"Birschbach","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Minnesota, Natural Resources Research Institute  Hermantown Minnesota USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Euan D.","family":"Reavie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Minnesota, Natural Resources Research Institute  Hermantown Minnesota USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3812-2831","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Christopher T.","family":"Filstrup","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Minnesota, Natural Resources Research Institute  Hermantown Minnesota USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hannah","family":"Nicklay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Extension, Lake Superior National Estuarine Research Reserve University of Wisconsin \u2013 Madison  Superior Wisconsin USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/05384680.1978.11903954"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10933\u2010017\u20100014\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jglr.2013.06.014"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4319\/lo.2008.53.6.2724"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","volume-title":"Standard methods for the examination of water and wastewater","author":"Baird R.","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jglr.2018.08.016"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jglr.2015.11.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","volume-title":"Biogeochemistry of estuaries","author":"Bianchi T. 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