{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,14]],"date-time":"2025-05-14T01:40:22Z","timestamp":1747186822740,"version":"3.40.5"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,8]],"date-time":"2021-08-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1628380800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Viral Hepatitis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Yichang is a city in central China in the Hubei Province. This study aimed to estimate the dynamics of the transmissibility of hepatitis C using a mathematical model and predict the transmissibility of hepatitis C in 2030. Data of hepatitis C cases from 13 counties or districts (cities) in Yichang from 2008 to 2016 were collected. A susceptible\u2010infectious\u2010chronic\u2010recovered (SICR) model was developed to fit the data. The transmissibility of hepatitis C at the counties or districts was calculated based on new infections (including infected or chronically infected cases) reported monthly in the city caused by one infectious individual (<jats:italic>MNI<\/jats:italic>). The trend of the<jats:italic>MNI<\/jats:italic>was fitted and predicted using 11 models, with the coefficient of determination (<jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic><jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>) was being used to test the goodness of fit of these models. A total of 3065 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Yichang from 2008 to 2016. The median<jats:italic>MNI<\/jats:italic>of Yichang was 0.0768. According to the fitting results and analysis, the trend of transmissibility of hepatitis C in Yichang City conforms with the logarithmic (<jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic><jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\u00a0=\u00a00.918,<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u00a0&lt;\u00a00.001):<jats:italic>MNI<\/jats:italic>\u00a0=\u00a00.265\u22120.108\u00a0<jats:italic>log<\/jats:italic>(<jats:italic>t<\/jats:italic>) and exponential (<jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic><jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\u00a0=\u00a00.939,<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u00a0&lt;\u00a00.001):<jats:italic>MNI<\/jats:italic>\u00a0=\u00a00.344<jats:italic>e<\/jats:italic><jats:sup>(\u22120.278<\/jats:sup><jats:italic><jats:sup>t<\/jats:sup><\/jats:italic><jats:sup>)<\/jats:sup>models. Hence, the transmission of hepatitis C virus at the county level has a downward trend. In conclusion, the transmissibility of hepatitis C in Yichang has a downward trend. With the current preventive and control measures in place, the spread of hepatitis C can be controlled.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/jvh.13582","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,27]],"date-time":"2021-07-27T15:57:08Z","timestamp":1627401428000},"page":"1464-1473","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Estimating the transmissibility of hepatitis C: A modelling study in Yichang City, China"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"28","author":[{"given":"Yao","family":"Wang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics School of Public Health Xiamen University Xiamen City China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zeyu","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics School of Public Health Xiamen University 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