{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]],"date-time":"2026-10-02T12:30:36Z","timestamp":1790944236910,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,31]],"date-time":"2023-03-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1680220800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003323","name":"Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le Sida et les H\u00e9patites Virales","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003323","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003323","name":"Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le Sida et les H\u00e9patites Virales","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003323","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Viral Hepatitis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Sustained viral response (SVR) significantly improves the prognosis in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronic infection but does not totally alleviate the risk of liver\u2010related complications (LRC). We aimed to evaluate whether the dynamics of multiple measurements of simple parameters after SVR enable the development of a personalized prediction of prognosis in HCV patients. HCV mono\u2010infected patients who experienced SVR in two prospective cohorts (ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort: derivation set; ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort: validation set) were included. The study outcome was LRC, a composite criterion including decompensation of cirrhosis and\/or hepatocellular carcinoma. Joint latent class modelling accounting for both biomarker trajectory and event occurrence during follow\u2010up was developed in the derivation set to compute individual dynamic predictions, with further evaluation in the validation set. In the derivation set (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u00a0=\u00a0695; 50 LRC during the median 3.8 [1.6\u20137.5] years follow\u2010up), FIB4 was identified as a biomarker associated with LRC occurrence after SVR. Joint modelling used sex and the dynamics of FIB4 and diabetes status to develop a personalized prediction of LRC. In the validation set (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u00a0=\u00a07064; 273 LRC during the median 3.6 [2.5\u20134.9] years follow\u2010up), individual dynamic predictions from the model accurately stratified the risk of LRC. Time\u2010dependent Brier Score showed good calibration that improved with the accumulation of visits, justifying our modelling approach considering both baseline and follow\u2010up measurements. Dynamic modelling using repeated measurements of simple parameters predicts the individual residual risk of LRC and improves personalized medicine after SVR in HCV patients.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/jvh.13830","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,9]],"date-time":"2023-03-09T08:50:55Z","timestamp":1678351855000},"page":"567-577","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["Dynamic personalized prediction of the individual <scp>liver\u2010related<\/scp> risk after sustained viral response in <scp>HCV<\/scp> patients"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"30","author":[{"given":"Cl\u00e9mence","family":"Moreau","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratoire HIFIH, UPRES EA3859, SFR 4208 Universit\u00e9 d'Angers  Angers France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marine","family":"Roux","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratoire HIFIH, UPRES EA3859, SFR 4208 Universit\u00e9 d'Angers  Angers France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"J\u00e9r\u00e9mie","family":"Riou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre Hospitalier Universitaire d'Angers, D\u00e9l\u00e9gation \u00e0 la recherche clinique et \u00e0 l'innovation  Angers France"},{"name":"Inserm, UMR 1066, Micro et Nanom\u00e9decines translationnelles Universit\u00e9 d'Angers  Angers France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cl\u00e9mence M.","family":"Canivet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratoire HIFIH, UPRES EA3859, SFR 4208 Universit\u00e9 d'Angers  Angers France"},{"name":"Centre Hospitalier Universitaire d'Angers, Service d'H\u00e9pato\u2010Gastroent\u00e9rologie et Oncologie Digestive  Angers France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Etienne","family":"Audureau","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"AP\u2010HP, H\u00f4pital Henri Mondor, D\u00e9partement de Sant\u00e9 Publique, and Universit\u00e9 Paris\u2010Est, A\u2010TVB DHU, CEpiA (Clinical Epidemiology and Ageing) Unit EA7376 UPEC  Cr\u00e9teil France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4457-4228","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Clovis","family":"Lusivika\u2010Nzinga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Sorbonne Universit\u00e9, Inserm, Institut Pierre\u2010Louis d'Epid\u00e9miologie et de Sant\u00e9 Publique  Paris France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pierre","family":"Nahon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"APHP, Liver Unit, Bobigny Universit\u00e9 Sorbonne Paris Nord  Bobigny France"},{"name":"Inserm, UMR\u20101138 \u201cFunctional Genomics of Solid Tumors\u201d, Centre de recherche des Cordeliers Universit\u00e9 de Paris  Paris France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fabrice","family":"Carrat","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Sorbonne Universit\u00e9, Inserm, Institut Pierre\u2010Louis d'Epid\u00e9miologie et de Sant\u00e9 Publique  Paris France"},{"name":"AP\u2010HP, H\u00f4pital Saint\u2010Antoine, Unit\u00e9 de Sant\u00e9 Publique  Paris France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"J\u00e9r\u00f4me","family":"Boursier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratoire HIFIH, UPRES EA3859, SFR 4208 Universit\u00e9 d'Angers  Angers France"},{"name":"Centre Hospitalier Universitaire d'Angers, Service d'H\u00e9pato\u2010Gastroent\u00e9rologie et Oncologie Digestive  Angers France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"name":"the ANRS CO12 CirVir group and the ANRS CO22 HEPATHER 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