{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,31]],"date-time":"2025-10-31T14:27:21Z","timestamp":1761920841303,"version":"3.40.5"},"reference-count":22,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,2]],"date-time":"2021-03-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1614643200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003710","name":"Korea Health Industry Development Institute","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NRF\u20102017R1C1B5074215"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NRF\u20102017R1C1B5074215"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003710","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Liver International"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background &amp; Aims<\/jats:title><jats:p>There are currently several prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving oral antiviral therapy. However, most models are based on pre\u2010treatment clinical parameters. The current study aimed to develop a novel and practical prediction model for HCC by using both pre\u2010 and post\u2010treatment parameters in this population.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We included two treatment\u2010na\u00efve CHB cohorts who were initiated on oral antiviral therapies: the derivation cohort (n\u00a0=\u00a01480, Korea prospective SAINT cohort) and the validation cohort (n\u00a0=\u00a0426, the US retrospective Stanford Bay cohort). We employed logistic regression, decision tree, lasso regression, support vector machine and random forest algorithms to develop the HCC prediction model and selected the most optimal method.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>We evaluated both pre\u2010treatment and the 12\u2010month clinical parameters on\u2010treatment and found the 12\u2010month on\u2010treatment values to have superior HCC prediction performance. The lasso logistic regression algorithm using the presence of cirrhosis at baseline and alpha\u2010foetoprotein and platelet at 12\u00a0months showed the best performance (AUROC\u00a0=\u00a00.843 in the derivation cohort. The model performed well in the external validation cohort (AUROC\u00a0=\u00a00.844) and better than other existing prediction models including the APA, PAGE\u2010B and GAG models (AUROC\u00a0=\u00a00.769 to 0.818).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>We provided a simple\u2010to\u2010use HCC prediction model based on presence of cirrhosis at baseline and two objective laboratory markers (AFP and platelets) measured 12\u00a0months after antiviral initiation. The model is highly accurate with excellent validation in an external cohort from a different country (AUROC 0.844) (Clinical trial number: KCT0003487).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/liv.14820","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,8]],"date-time":"2021-02-08T19:28:30Z","timestamp":1612812510000},"page":"1652-1661","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Twelve\u2010month post\u2010treatment parameters are superior in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"Sang Bong","family":"Ahn","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine Nowon Eulji Medical Center Eulji University College of Medicine Seoul South Korea"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jun","family":"Choi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Fusion 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Sanggye Paik Hospital Inje University College of Medicine Seoul South Korea"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2394-1095","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hyoung Su","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine Kangdong Sacred Heart Hospital Hallym University College of Medicine Seoul South Korea"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Soung Won","family":"Jeong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine Soonchunhyang University College of Medicine Soonchunhyang University Seoul Hospital Seoul South Korea"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6236-780X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sung Eun","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital Hallym University College of Medicine Anyang\u2010si South Korea"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2497-8663","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jae\u2010Jun","family":"Shim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine Kyung Hee University School of Medicine Seoul South Korea"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yong Kyun","family":"Cho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine Kangbuk Samsung Hospital Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine Seoul South Korea"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hyo Young","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine Nowon Eulji Medical Center Eulji University College of Medicine Seoul South Korea"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sung Won","family":"Han","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistical Consulting and Research Lab School of Medicine Korea University Seoul South Korea"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6275-4989","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mindie H.","family":"Nguyen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Stanford University Medical Center Palo Alto CA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"name":"SAINT 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