{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,7]],"date-time":"2026-09-07T01:38:57Z","timestamp":1788745137666,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,21]],"date-time":"2023-09-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1695254400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Liver International"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Italy has a high HCV prevalence, and despite the approval of a dedicated fund for \u2018Experimental screening\u2019 for 2\u2009years, screening has not been fully implemented. We aimed to evaluate the long\u2010term impact of the persisting delay in HCV elimination after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID\u201019) pandemic in Italy.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We used a mathematical, probabilistic modelling approach evaluating three hypothetical \u2018Inefficient\u2019, \u2018Efficient experimental\u2019 and \u2018WHO Target\u2019 screening scenarios differing by treatment rates over time. A Markov chain for liver disease progression evaluated the number of active infections, decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and HCV liver\u2010related deaths up to the years 2030 and 2050.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>The \u2018WHO Target\u2019 scenario estimated 3900 patients with DC and 600 with HCC versus 4400 and 600 cases, respectively, similar for both \u2018Inefficient\u2019 and \u2018Efficient experimental\u2019 screening up to 2030. A sharp (10\u2010fold) decrease in DC and HCC was estimated by the \u2018WHO Target\u2019 scenario compared with the other two scenarios in 2050; the forecasted number of DC was 420 cases versus 4200 and 3800 and of HCC &lt;10 versus 600 and 400 HCC cases by \u2018WHO Target,\u2019 \u2018Inefficient\u2019 and \u2018Efficient experimental\u2019 scenarios, respectively. A significant decrease of the cumulative estimated number of liver\u2010related deaths was observed up to 2050 by the \u2018WHO Target\u2019 scenario (52000) versus \u2018Inefficient\u2019 or \u2018Efficient experimental\u2019 scenarios (79\u2009000 and 74\u2009000 liver\u2010related deaths, respectively).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>Our estimates highlight the need to extensively and efficiently address HCV screening and cure of HCV infection in order to avoid the forecasted long\u2010term HCV adverse outcomes in Italy.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/liv.15712","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,22]],"date-time":"2023-09-22T06:45:11Z","timestamp":1695365111000},"page":"2615-2624","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Forecasting the long\u2010term impact of <scp>COVID<\/scp>\u201019 on hepatitis C elimination plans in Italy: A mathematical modelling approach"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"43","author":[{"given":"Loreta A.","family":"Kondili","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Global Health Istituto Superiore di Sanit\u00e0  Rome Italy"},{"name":"Dentistry and Dental Prosthetics UniCamillus\u2010Saint Camillus International University of Health Sciences  Rome Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Massimo","family":"Andreoni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Diseases Unit University of Tor Vergata  Rome Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0941-3226","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alessio","family":"Aghemo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Internal Medicine and Hepatology, Department of Gastroenterology IRCCS Humanitas Research Hospital  Rozzano Italy"},{"name":"Department of Biomedical Sciences Humanitas University  Pieve Emanuele Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Claudio Maria","family":"Mastroianni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases Sapienza University  Rome Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rocco","family":"Merolla","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Medical Department AbbVie Srl  Campoverde Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Valentina","family":"Gallinaro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Medical Department AbbVie Srl  Campoverde Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gianpiero","family":"D'Offizi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dentistry and Dental Prosthetics UniCamillus\u2010Saint Camillus International University of Health Sciences  Rome Italy"},{"name":"UOC Malattie Infettive\u2010Epatologia Dipartimento POIT INMI Lazzaro Spallanzani  Rome Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Antonio","family":"Crax\u00ec","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"PROMISE, School of Medicine University of Palermo  Palermo Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_12_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-1253(21)00472-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_3_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization (WHO).Global health sector strategy on viral hepatitis 2016\u20132021. 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