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In the spruce bark beetle\n                    <jats:italic>Ips typographus<\/jats:italic>\n                    , diapause phenotypes, classified as facultative or obligate, significantly impact voltinism and thus outbreak potential, yet the genetic mechanisms underlying this trait remain incompletely understood. Here, we combined reduced\u2010representation genome\u2010wide association study (rGWAS) and machine learning (ML) to identify genetic polymorphisms associated with diapause phenotypes. Using ddRADseq, we analysed genomic data from diapause\u2010phenotyped individuals originating from distinct geographic locations in Central and Northern Europe. rGWAS identified SNPs associated with diapause phenotypes, with a locus encoding juvenile hormone esterase (JHE) emerging as the strongest and only association robust to empirical null calibration. ML classification independently recovered JHE, detected additional loci involved in protein regulation, signal transduction and stress\u2010response pathways, and, following permutation and cross\u2010population validation, achieved high predictive accuracy. Our combined rGWAS and ML approach outperformed either method alone, effectively identifying a minimal set of SNPs capable of robustly distinguishing facultative from obligate diapause phenotypes. Applying our model to wild, non\u2010phenotyped\n                    <jats:italic>I. typographus<\/jats:italic>\n                    populations revealed a high proportion (&gt;\u200950%) of facultative diapause phenotypes (potentially multivoltine) in Central European regions and obligate diapausing individuals (~97%; univoltine) prevailing at northern latitudes, consistent with adaptive responses to local environmental conditions and demonstrating the feasibility of inferring voltinism potential from genomic data in natural populations. Our study provides significant advances for ecological genomics research and presents new tools for predicting and managing outbreak risks in pest species under climate change.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/mec.70532","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,26]],"date-time":"2026-08-26T04:57:16Z","timestamp":1787720236000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Genomic Predictors of Diapause Polymorphism in the Bark Beetle\n                    <scp>\n                      <i>Ips typographus<\/i>\n                    <\/scp>\n                    With Implications for Voltinism Potential and Outbreak Dynamics"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"35","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4813-2614","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Luciano","family":"Palmieri","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Agricultural, Environmental and Food Science Free University of Bozen\u2010Bolzano  Bolzano Italy"},{"name":"Competence Centre for Plant Health Free University of Bozen\u2010Bolzano  Bolzano Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Edwina J.","family":"Dowle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Integrative Biology University of Colorado\u2013Denver  Denver Colorado USA"},{"name":"New Zealand Institute for Bioeconomy Science Limited  Lincoln New Zealand"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8457-310X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Krystyna","family":"Nadachowska\u2010Brzyska","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Biology Jagiellonian University  Krak\u00f3w Poland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Axel","family":"Schopf","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Forest Entomology, Forest Pathology and Forest Protection, Department of Ecosystem Management, Climate and Biodiversity BOKU University  Vienna Austria"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nina","family":"Dobart","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Forest Entomology, Forest Pathology and Forest Protection, Department of Ecosystem Management, Climate and Biodiversity BOKU University  Vienna Austria"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2985-8911","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Christian","family":"Stauffer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Forest Entomology, Forest Pathology and Forest Protection, Department of Ecosystem Management, Climate and Biodiversity BOKU University  Vienna Austria"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8307-9831","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hannes","family":"Schuler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Agricultural, Environmental and Food Science Free University of Bozen\u2010Bolzano  Bolzano Italy"},{"name":"Competence Centre for Plant Health Free University of Bozen\u2010Bolzano  Bolzano Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6501-3641","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gregory J.","family":"Ragland","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Integrative Biology University of Colorado\u2013Denver  Denver Colorado USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7376-4878","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Martin","family":"Schebeck","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Forest Entomology, Forest Pathology and Forest Protection, Department of Ecosystem Management, Climate and Biodiversity BOKU University  Vienna Austria"},{"name":"Department of Forest Entomology, Faculty of Forest Sciences and Forest Ecology University of G\u00f6ttingen  G\u00f6ttingen Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_12_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compbiomed.2022.105622"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Akiba T. 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