{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T08:04:35Z","timestamp":1789977875116,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"Wiley","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1789948800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1789948800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["resjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Medical Vet Entomology"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Climate change poses significant threats to arthropod vectors of veterinary importance.\n                    <jats:italic>Hippobosca equina<\/jats:italic>\n                    , the forest fly, is an obligate ectoparasite of ungulates with demonstrated capacity for pathogen transmission. We employed maximum entropy modelling to predict current and future global distribution patterns of\n                    <jats:italic>H. equina<\/jats:italic>\n                    under climate change scenarios. Using 1195 occurrence records and five bioclimatic variables, we generated models for present conditions and future projections (2050s and 2070s) under SSP 3\u20137.0 and SSP 5\u20138.5 scenarios. Model performance was robust (AUC\u2009=\u20090.954, TSS validation confirmed). Mean temperature of warmest quarter, temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality contributed most significantly to distribution patterns. Current suitable habitat centres in temperate Europe, with secondary distributions in western Asia and scattered localities globally. Future projections indicate poleward range shifts, with significant habitat expansion into northern Europe, Russia and North America, while southern temperate regions experience habitat contraction. Quantitative predictions indicate that suitable habitat may increase by up to 24.98%\u201328.81% and decline by up to 11.45%\u201317.53% relative to current distributions, depending on the emission scenarios, with the most pronounced turnover occurring under SSP5\u20108.5 by the 2070s. These findings provide critical baseline data for surveillance programs and inform veterinary public health strategies in regions facing imminent colonization risk.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/mve.70116","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T07:23:59Z","timestamp":1789975439000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["<i>Hippobosca equina<\/i>\n                    as an emerging threat in northern temperate zones: Species distribution modelling under climate change"],"prefix":"10.1111","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5210-777X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"AbdAllah","family":"Samer","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Entomology, Faculty of Science Ain Shams University  Cairo Egypt"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hassan H.","family":"Fadl","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Entomology, Faculty of Science Ain Shams University  Cairo Egypt"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hayam","family":"El\u2010Hamouly","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Entomology, Faculty of Science Ain Shams University  Cairo Egypt"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8627-7833","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mohamed G.","family":"Nasser","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Entomology, Faculty of Science Ain Shams University  Cairo Egypt"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2021.106274","article-title":"Molecular characterization of some equine vector\u2010borne diseases and associated 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detection of Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis isolated from Hippobosca equina","volume":"6","author":"Arafa W.M.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Journal of Advanced Veterinary and Animal Research"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"365","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x","article-title":"Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity","volume":"15","author":"Bellard C.","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ecology Letters"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2016.11.019","article-title":"Effects of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of livestock diseases","volume":"137","author":"Bett B.","year":"2017","journal-title":"Preventive Veterinary Medicine"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"325","DOI":"10.1016\/j.japb.2018.06.002","article-title":"Review of CLIMEX and MaxEnt for studying species distribution in South Korea","volume":"11","author":"Byeon D.","year":"2018","journal-title":"Journal of Asia\u2010Pacific Biodiversity"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Checklist of world Hippoboscidae (Diptera: Hippoboscoidea)","volume":"7","author":"Dick C.W.","year":"2006","journal-title":"Chicago Field Museum of Natural History"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17314","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-023-44441-8","article-title":"Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate change","volume":"13","author":"ElShahed S.M.","year":"2023","journal-title":"Scientific Reports"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"221","DOI":"10.4081\/gh.2014.19","article-title":"Potential for spread of the white\u2010nose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) in the Americas: use of Maxent and NicheA to assure strict model transference","volume":"9","author":"Escobar 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(Hippoboscidae: Hippobosca) in Lublin Province, south\u2010eastern Poland","volume":"31","author":"Ma\u015blanko W.","year":"2024","journal-title":"Annals of Agricultural and Environmental Medicine"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph192416978","article-title":"Hippobosca equina L. (Hippoboscidae: Hippobosca)\u2014an old enemy as an emerging threat in the palearctic zone","volume":"19","author":"Ma\u015blanko W.","year":"2022","journal-title":"International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1058","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1398-9995.2009.02270.x","article-title":"IgE\u2010mediated anaphylaxis to Hippobosca equina in a patient with systemic mastocytosis","volume":"65","author":"Matito A.","year":"2010","journal-title":"Allergy"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","first-page":"25","volume-title":"The trypanosomiases","author":"McDermott J.J.","year":"2002"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","first-page":"4","article-title":"Short\u2010term faunistic sampling of louse flies (Diptera: Hippoboscidae) from Drienovec bird Ringing Station, Slovakia","volume":"11","author":"Obo\u0148a J.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Biodiversity and Environment"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"179","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-023-05810-4","article-title":"Molecular pathogen screening of louse flies (Diptera: Hippoboscidae) from domestic and wild ruminants in Austria","volume":"16","author":"Pe\u00f1a\u2010Espinoza M.","year":"2023","journal-title":"Parasites & Vectors"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_1","volume-title":"Maxent software for modeling species niches and distributions (version 3.4.4)","author":"Phillips S.J.","year":"2025"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_1","first-page":"31","article-title":"Anaphylactic reaction after Hippobosca equina bite","volume":"20","author":"Quercia O.","year":"2005","journal-title":"Alergologia e Inmunologia Clinica"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"127","DOI":"10.1051\/parasite\/2011182127","article-title":"The Hippoboscidae (Insecta: Diptera) from Madagascar, with new records from the parc national de Midongy Befotaka","volume":"18","author":"Rahola N.","year":"2011","journal-title":"Parasite"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"261","DOI":"10.55730\/1300-0179.3138","article-title":"Diversity and prevalence of ornithophilic louse flies (Diptera: Hippoboscidae: Ornithomyinae) in Serbia","volume":"47","author":"Rekecki T.","year":"2023","journal-title":"Turkish Journal of Zoology"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_1","unstructured":"Samer A. 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