{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T12:58:02Z","timestamp":1760101082568},"reference-count":54,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,7,25]],"date-time":"2018-07-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1532476800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>In our study, we present a purely statistical observations\u2010based model\u2010free analysis that provides evidence about Granger causality (GC) from long\u2010lived radiative forcings (LLRFs) to the climate trend (CT). This relies on having locally ordered breaks in the slopes of the trend functions of LLRF and the CT, with the break for LLRF occurring before that of the CT and with the slope changes being of the same sign. The empirical evidence indicates that these conditions are satisfied empirically using standard global surface temperature series and an aggregate measure of LLRF (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons). We also discuss why the presence of broken trends can lead one to conclude in favor of GC when using standard methods even if the noise function in LLRF is negligible.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/nyas.13923","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,7,25]],"date-time":"2018-07-25T15:27:52Z","timestamp":1532532472000},"page":"195-205","update-policy":"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Causality from long\u2010lived radiative forcings to the climate trend"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"1436","author":[{"given":"Francisco","family":"Estrada","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Ciencias de la Atm\u00f3sfera Universidad Nacional Aut\u00f3noma de M\u00e9xico Mexico City Mexico"},{"name":"Institute for Environmental Studies VU University Amsterdam Amsterdam the Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Pierre","family":"Perron","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics Boston University Boston Massachusetts"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,7,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","unstructured":"T.F. Stocker D. Qin G.K. Plattner 2013 Cambridge University Press New York NY"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","unstructured":"2014 Cambridge University Press New York NY IPCC Climate change 2014: impacts adaptation and vulnerability"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","first-page":"251","volume-title":"Meteorology of Tropical Oceans","author":"Hasselmann K.","year":"1979"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s003820050185"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI3731.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","first-page":"695","volume-title":"Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis","author":"Mitchell J.F.B.","year":"2001"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2011BAMS3139.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo1999"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0060017"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-010-9928-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40590-014-0009-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1912791"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2011JD017187"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","first-page":"RG4004","article-title":"Global surface temperature change. Rev","volume":"48","author":"Hansen J.","year":"2010","journal-title":"Geophys"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","unstructured":"GISTEMP Team.2016.GISS surface temperature analysis (GISTEMP). NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Accessed January 8 2016.https:\/\/data.giss.nasa.gov\/gistemp\/."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2000GL012745"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.269.5224.676"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.288.5473.1984"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/acp-11-13421-2011"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2005JD005776"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_1","article-title":"Inference related to common breaks in a multivariate system with joined segmented trends with applications to global and hemispheric temperatures","author":"Kim D.","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Econ."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Iles C.&G.Hegerl.2017.Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends.Environ. Res. Lett.12:1\u201311.stacks.iop.org\/ERL\/12\/114010\/mmedia.","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/aa9152"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-011-1128-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2010JCLI3347.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-008-9524-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_27_1","first-page":"147","article-title":"Some implications of time series analysis for describing climatologic conditions and for forecasting. An illustrative case: Veracruz, M\u00e9xico","volume":"20","author":"Gay C.","year":"2007","journal-title":"Atm\u00f3sfera"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1913236"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00864914"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1005390515242"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-006-9062-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1005672231474"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s007040170019"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1913712"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2009.08.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_36_1","first-page":"278","volume-title":"Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics","author":"Perron P.","year":"2006"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1975.10480264"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jtsa.12246"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-008-9407-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-4076(94)01616-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/asl.365"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/env.2210"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_43_1","first-page":"515","article-title":"Granger causality analyses for climatic attribution","volume":"3","author":"Attanasio A.","year":"2013","journal-title":"Atmos. Clim. Sci."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pasini A. U.Triacca&A.Attanasio.2012.Evidence of recent causal decoupling between solar radiation and global temperature.Environ. Res. Lett.7.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/7\/3\/034020.","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/7\/3\/034020"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Foster G.&S.Rahmstorf.2011.Global temperature evolution 1979\u20132010.Environ. Res. Lett.6.http:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/6\/4\/044022.","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/6\/4\/044022"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/econometrics5010004"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2998540"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266466600005831"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/jbes.2009.07268"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2004.09.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-012-0683-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-11-00598.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2008.08.019"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"323","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2000.10524874","article-title":"Nonparametric nonlinear cotrending analysis, with an application to interest and inflation in the United States","volume":"18","author":"Bierens H.J.","year":"2000","journal-title":"J. Bus. Econ. Stat."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2938229"}],"container-title":["Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1111%2Fnyas.13923","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/nyas.13923","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,8]],"date-time":"2024-07-08T16:50:50Z","timestamp":1720457450000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/nyas.13923"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2018,7,25]]},"references-count":54,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/nyas.13923"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/nyas.13923","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0077-8923","1749-6632"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0077-8923","type":"print"},{"value":"1749-6632","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2018,7,25]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2018-03-31","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2018-06-13","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2018-07-25","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}