{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T18:31:05Z","timestamp":1790793065107,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":57,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,12]],"date-time":"2025-01-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1736640000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100018700","name":"HORIZON EUROPE Climate, Energy and Mobility","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ELEVATE 101056873"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ELEVATE 101056873"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100018700","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Globally, more than 100 countries have adopted net\u2010zero targets. Most studies agree on how this increases the chance of keeping end\u2010of\u2010century global warming below 2\u00b0C. However, they typically make assumptions about net\u2010zero targets that do not capture uncertainties related to gas coverage, sector coverage, sinks, and removals. This study aims to analyze the impact of many uncertainty factors on the projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 for major emitting countries following their net\u2010zero pathways, and their aggregate impact on global GHG emissions. Global emission projections range from 23 to 40 gigatons of CO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    equivalent (GtCO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    eq), with a median of 31\u00a0GtCO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    eq. Our full range corresponds to about 40\u201375% of 2015 emission levels, which is much wider than the range of 30\u201345% reported by various integrated assessment models. The main factors contributing to this divergence are the uncertainty in the gas coverage of net\u2010zero targets and uncertainty in the socioeconomic baseline. Countries with net\u2010zero GHG targets by 2050 have a small range of 2050 emissions, while countries with net\u2010zero targets beyond 2050 and unclear coverage, such as China, India, and Indonesia, have a large range of emissions by 2050.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/nyas.15285","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,12]],"date-time":"2025-01-12T12:34:26Z","timestamp":1736685266000},"page":"209-222","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Uncertainties around net\u2010zero climate targets have major impact on greenhouse gas emissions projections"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"1544","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5128-8150","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Michel G. J.","family":"den Elzen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency  The Hague The Netherlands"},{"name":"Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam  Amsterdam The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5371-2341","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ioannis","family":"Dafnomilis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency  The Hague The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Leonardo","family":"Nascimento","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NewClimate Institute  Cologne Germany"},{"name":"Environmental Systems Analysis Group Wageningen University  Wageningen The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Arthur","family":"Beusen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency  The Hague The Netherlands"},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences\u2010Geochemistry Utrecht University  Utrecht The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicklas","family":"Forsell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)  Laxenburg Austria"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joost","family":"Gubbels","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency  The Hague The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mathijs","family":"Harmsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency  The Hague The Netherlands"},{"name":"Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development Utrecht University  Utrecht The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elena","family":"Hooijschuur","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency  The Hague The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zuelclady","family":"Araujo Guti\u00e9rrez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)  Laxenburg Austria"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Takeshi","family":"Kuramochi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NewClimate Institute  Cologne Germany"},{"name":"Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development Utrecht University  Utrecht The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","volume-title":"Net\u2010Zero Tracker","author":"ClimateWatch","year":"2024"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.adg6248"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","volume-title":"Net Zero Tracker","author":"Hale T.","year":"2021"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43247-022-00636-x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","volume-title":"The state of carbon dioxide removal 2024","author":"Smith S. 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