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Here, we investigated whether pain modulates optimism bias and its underlying confidence\u2010weighted belief updating. Participants exposed to topical capsaicin (pain group) or Vaseline (control group) estimated and updated the probability of positive or negative life events and rated their confidence in the estimations. Results verified the optimism bias effect and further identified an optimism\u2010biased confidence phenomenon: confidence in first estimations negatively predicted belief updating. Furthermore, confidence in second estimates increased more significantly after receiving desirable information than undesirable information. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found no clear evidence that pain directly altered optimism\u2010biased updating; however, pain reduced the overall increase in confidence during the updating process. These findings elucidate a nuanced role of pain in shaping optimism\u2010biased confidence and may inform interventions that target metacognitive processes in pain management.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/nyas.70407","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T13:36:03Z","timestamp":1789997763000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Pain Modulates Optimism\u2010Biased Belief Updating and Confidence"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"1563","author":[{"given":"Penggeng","family":"Zhao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Psychology Shaanxi Normal University  Xi'an China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cuizhen","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Psychology Shaanxi Normal University  Xi'an 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