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We constructed a mechanistic\u2010ecological model to explain this inconsistency and tested its predictions using population dietary data. The model builds on experimentally established mechanisms to predict that, whereas alcohol will contribute ethanol calories irrespective of diet, its impact on total macronutrient energy intake varies depending on dietary pattern. Alcohol consumption stimulates FGF21, a hormone that increases savory (umami) preference and reduces sweet preference. In minimally processed food environments\u2014where umami flavor is a relatively reliable indicator of protein in foods\u2014umami\u2010seeking should direct consumers toward satiating, high\u2010protein foods, with limited effect on macronutrient energy intake. In contrast, on diets rich in ultra\u2010processed savory foods and\/or high\u2010fat unprocessed meats, the correlation between umami flavor characteristics and protein is broken by umami\u2010flavored low\u2010protein foods (protein decoys), so alcohol instead drives dietary protein dilution and, through attenuated protein satiation, increased food and macronutrient energy intake (protein leverage). Mixture analysis paired with nutritional geometry confirmed these predictions in population data, suggesting the model may generalize to ecological contexts. Our results potentially explain why alcohol has variable effects on energy balance across dietary patterns and suggest that it exacerbates the obesogenic effects of ultra\u2010processed diets\u2014a potentially important interaction given their global rise.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/obr.70138","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,20]],"date-time":"2026-05-20T04:34:37Z","timestamp":1779251677000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Protein Decoys, Alcohol, and Energy Intake: Testing a Mechanistic\u2010Ecological Model"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"27","author":[{"given":"Amanda","family":"Grech","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Charles Perkins Centre University of Sydney  NSW Australia"},{"name":"School of Life and Environmental Science University of Sydney  Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen J.","family":"Simpson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Charles Perkins Centre University of Sydney  NSW Australia"},{"name":"School of Life and Environmental Science University of Sydney  Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David","family":"Raubenheimer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Charles Perkins Centre University of Sydney  NSW Australia"},{"name":"School of Life and Environmental Science University of Sydney  Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cmet.2019.05.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/dom.15922"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/oby.23578"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fnut.2024.1306310"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1753-4887.2011.00403.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/nu13092927"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11469-023-01038-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5822\/978-1-61091-230-3_8"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kww021"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwac099"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2020.100398"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1751731120000312"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1749-4877.12618"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0029665122002750"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"S.Ramne M.Garc\u00eda\u2010Ure\u00f1a M. 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